IRAN: Foreign Min-All Vessels Can Pass Through Strait, Except Those At War w/ Us
Speaking to the press at the BRICS foreign ministers meeting in New Delhi, India, Foreign Minister A...
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FED: Hawkish Hammack And Beige Book To Headline Fedspeak Today
Today’s Fedspeak focus from a directly mon pol related angle should be on Hammack, one of the most hawkish on the FOMC, and then the first Beige Book collected during the US-Israel-Iran war.
- 0830ET – Gov Barr (voter) in moderated discussion on regulation (no text)
- 0830ET – Cleveland Fed’s Hammack (’26, hawk) on CNBC. Speaking on Apr 6, before the two-week ceasefire announced Apr 7, she said she prefers to hold rates steady for “quite some time” with two-sided risks. “I can foresee scenarios where we would need to reduce rates” if the labor market deteriorates significantly. “Or I could see where we might need to raise rates if inflation stays persistently above our target”.
- 1345ET – VC Supervision Bowman (voter, dove) on regulation at IIF Forum (no text)
- 1400ET – Beige Book. The last Beige Book, published Mar 4 but collected up to Feb 23, underlined only limited changes to district-by-district conditions since the previous edition in January. Inflation dynamics remained largely unchanged (with prices up to varying degrees) in February's Beige Book vs January's, with 4 continuing to characterize price pressures as modest/slight for the 3rd consecutive edition.
IRAN: Risk-Negative Price Action As Iran Warns Against Continuation Of Blockade
Oil traded off initial reaction lows that followed the re-airing of U.S. President Trump's comments surrounding the potential end to the war. The move then accelerated after the IRGC warned against the U.S. continuing its naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which it views as a break of the ceasefire agreement.. The IRGC also noted that it will not allow shipments to and from the Gulf if the blockade remains in place.
- Light demand for the broader USD alongside the news, while bonds and equities tick lower (Bund futures and S&P 500 e-minis trade to fresh session lows).
IRAN: Modest Market Reaction To Trump Interview
Wires carrying headlines from the previously flagged Fox interview with U.S. President Trump
- "*TRUMP ON IRAN: MAYBE END-RESULT WILL HAPPEN SOON" - BBG
- "*TRUMP: NO PUSHBACK FROM CHINA ON HORMUZ BLOCKADE"
- "*TRUMP: SAUDIS ALSO DIDN'T PUSH BACK ON HORMUZ BLOCKADE"
- Initial comment re: end of the conflict was aired overnight, still we see a modest bid in FI & equities alongside a downtick in crude.
