STIR: FOMC Sep and Nov Hike Probabilities Near Unchanged On FOMC Decision
Jul-26 18:14
- The initial STIR reaction to the FOMC announcement has been very small, at least before the presser.
- FOMC-dated OIS implied rates see September expectations drift just 0.5bps lower to a 4bp hike and the Nov terminal remains with a cumulative 11bp (i.e. almost 50/50 odds of the second hike that the median FOMC participant pencilled in for June) -- assuming a 5.33% effective rate.
- There’s no discernible change in cut pricing either, with 55bp from terminal to Jun’24.
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ECB: Spain Pushes Its Bid For ECB Watchdog Role
Jun-26 18:10
*SPAIN ECONOMY MINISTRY BACKS DELGADO FOR TOP ECB WATCHDOG JOB - bbg
- Spain's Margarita Delgado has previously been seen as one of three leading candidates to replace Enria as Chair of the ECB Supervisory Board from Jan 1, 2024.
- The other two challengers are seen as Germany's Claudia Buch and Ireland's Sharon Donnery.
EURGBP TECHS: Bearish Trend Condition
Jun-26 18:00
- RES 4: 0.8768 High May 5
- RES 3: 0.8719 High May 23
- RES 2: 0.8659 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 0.8636 High Jun 5
- PRICE: 0.8584 @ 15:55 BST Jun 26
- SUP 1: 0.8518 Low Jun 19 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 0.8480 1.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 3: 0.8454 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Sep 2022 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 0.8408 Low Aug 24 2023
The primary trend direction in EURGBP remains down and the pullback Friday confirms recent gains as corrective. Resistance at the 20-day EMA has been breached, however, price has remained below resistance at 0.8659, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would highlight a stronger reversal. A break of 0.8518, the Jun 19 low, would confirm a resumption of the trend.
US: State Department: It's A New Thing To See Putin Directly Challenged
Jun-26 17:54
US State Department Spokesperson Matthew Miller has told reporters that the situation in Russia remains a "dynamic situation," but its "certainly a new thing to see President Putin's leadership directly challenged."
- Miller: "its a new thing to see [Wagner Group Director] Evgeniy Prigozhin directly questioning the rationale for this war and calling out that the war has been conducted essentially based on a lie which is something that we have said previously but is something we haven't seen coming from Russian officials recently."
- Miller says that the US Ambassador to Russia, Lynne Tracey, conveyed to Russia that the US sees the mutiny as, "an internal Russian affair in which the US is not involved and will not be involved."
- Miller says he "doesn't have any assessment" about Prigozhin's location.
