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STIR: RBA Pricing Comes In A Touch As Monthly CPI Provides Downside Surprise
| OIS Strip Post-Today's Data | OIS Strip Pre-Today's Data | OIS Strip Post-Feb RBA | |
| Mar-23 | 3.55% | 3.56% | 3.53% |
| Apr-23 | 3.75% | 3.76% | 3.70% |
| May-23 | 3.94% | 3.95% | 3.82% |
| Jun-23 | 4.06% | 4.09% | 3.90% |
| Jul-23 | 4.17% | 4.19% | 3.92% |
| Aug-23 | 4.26% | 4.29% | 3.95% |
| Sep-23 | 4.27% | 4.32% | 3.93% |
| Oct-23 | 4.27% | 4.33% | 3.90% |
| Nov-23 | 4.25% | 4.32% | 3.86% |
| Dec-23 | 4.22% | 4.29% | 3.82% |
| Feb-24 | 4.17% | 4.24% | 3.77% |
| Mar-24 | 4.14% | 4.21% |
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
AUSSIE BONDS: Softer Data Prints Fuel Pop In ACGBs
Aussie bond futures rally on softer Q4 GDP and a substantial, broad-based miss for January monthly CPI which came in at +7.4% Y/Y versus +8.3% in December and BBG consensus forecast of +8.1%. YM +7.0 & XM +3.5. Cash ACGB yields now sit 2-6bp lower on the day with the curve 2bp steeper. A similar move is seen in swaps. Bills move into positive territory excluding IRH3, now -1 to +9 through the reds after being cheaper by 2-5bp ahead of the data. RBA dated OIS is 3-7bp lower for meetings beyond May led by November. Terminal rate pricing drops to ~4.25% from 4.33% pre-data.
STIR: RBA Pricing Comes In A Touch As Monthly CPI Provides Downside Surprise
| OIS Strip Post-Today's Data | OIS Strip Pre-Today's Data | OIS Strip Post-Feb RBA | |
| Mar-23 | 3.55% | 3.56% | 3.53% |
| Apr-23 | 3.75% | 3.76% | 3.70% |
| May-23 | 3.94% | 3.95% | 3.82% |
| Jun-23 | 4.06% | 4.09% | 3.90% |
| Jul-23 | 4.17% | 4.19% | 3.92% |
| Aug-23 | 4.26% | 4.29% | 3.95% |
| Sep-23 | 4.27% | 4.32% | 3.93% |
| Oct-23 | 4.27% | 4.33% | 3.90% |
| Nov-23 | 4.25% | 4.32% | 3.86% |
| Dec-23 | 4.22% | 4.29% | 3.82% |
| Feb-24 | 4.17% | 4.24% | 3.77% |
| Mar-24 | 4.14% | 4.21% |
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
