EU TECHNOLOGY: Fiserv: Q3 Results Headlines (FI; Baa2/BBB/NR)
Oct-29 11:06
Big miss. Negative "FISERV SEES FY ADJ EPS $8.50 TO $8.60, SAW $10.15 TO $10.30 FISERV 3Q ADJ EPS $...
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FOREX: Reeves Looks to Reassure at Conference Speech
Sep-29 11:01
- The USD is slipping against most others in G10 early Monday, keeping the USD Index closely glued to the 50-dma of 98.038 - a level that's helped dictate price action well since the beginning of August. The inability of the USD to build on last week's gains does suggest those looking for a near-term greenback bounce may need more support before progress toward a more sustained recovery. This leaves the stress evident in the labor market as the key near-term driver, however resilient inflationary pressures continue to provide the counter, a topic raised by Fed's Hammack today, who stated inflation may stay above target out to 2028.
- The JPY, AUD are the firmest performers in G10 - with the JPY adding to gains as the Japanese government confirm an upgraded near-term view on the economy and economic conditions. This has helped USD/JPY revert back to key support of the 148.44 200-dma to erase a large part of last week's strength in the pair.
- Much market focus on UK Chancellor Reeves' appearance at the Labour Party Conference later today, at which she'll defend the government's record on the economy and potentially set out further clues for her intentions into the Autumn Budget as pressure grows on how to close the fiscal gap without breaching manifesto commitments of higher income tax, VAT or national insurance. Into the conference speech, GBP remains mixed, however traded lower last week, marking an extension of the current bear cycle that started Sep 17. The move down has resulted in a break of 1.3491, a trendline support drawn from the Aug 1 low. This undermines a recent bullish theme.
- Outside of the conference appearance, pending home sales and Dallas Fed Manufacturing data are due today, while Eurozone CPI data and the MNI Chicago PMI are the focus for the rest of the week.
US TSYS: US Gov Shutdown Looms, Trump Meets Cong'l Leaders, Israel's Netanyahu
Sep-29 11:00
- Treasuries are climbing higher this morning as a US Government shutdown looms - Pres Trump to meet with congressional leaders at 1500ET in an attempt to avert a shutdown as Federal agencies to run out of money at midnight Tuesday. Aside from shutdown risks, market focus is on Friday's employment report for September.
- Back to early Thursday levels - the Dec'25 10Y contract (TYZ5) currently trades at 112-16.5 (+8) on light cumulative volumes of 195k. 10Y yield at 4.1426% (-.0330). Curves flatter: 2s10s -1.465 at 51.583, 5s30s -.363 at 97.829.
- Treasury futures traded lower last week and remain in retracement mode. Thursday’s sell-off has resulted in a print below the 50-day EMA, at 112-10. A clear break of this average would undermine a bull theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 111-13+, the Aug 18 low and the next key support. Initial firm resistance to watch is 113-00, the Sep 24 high.
- Economic Data: Pending Home Sales (1000ET), Dallas Fed Mfg Activity (1030ET)
- Treasury Auctions: $82B 13W & $73B 26W bills at 1130ET.
- Fedspeak: (0730ET) Fed Gov Waller on payments from Germany (text, no Q&A), (0800ET) Cleveland Fed Hammack policy panel at ECB w/ BOE Ramsden & ECB Lane, (1330ET) StL Fed Musalem moderated panel w/ former Fed Pres Bullard, (1800ET) Atlanta Fed Bostic moderated discussion (no text, Q&A).
- Politics: In addition to meeting with congressional leaders Thune, Johnson, Schumer and Jeffries at 1500ET, President Trump's schedule includes signing executive orders (1015ET), bilateral meeting with Israel's Netanyahu (1135ET) with presser at 1315ET, President Trump participates in a Gold Star Families Reception (1730ET).
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Gold Bulls Remain In The Driver's Seat
Sep-29 10:45
- On the commodity front, the trend condition in Gold is unchanged and a bull cycle remains in play. The yellow metal has started the week on a bullish note, trading to a fresh cycle high, confirming a resumption of the primary uptrend. Note that MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on $3831.4, a 1.764 projection of the Dec 30 ’24 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing. On the downside, support to watch lies at $3646.3, the 20-day EMA.
- In the oil space, WTI futures are holding on to the bulk of their recent gains. The contract has breached resistance at $65.43, the Sep 2 high and this has improved the short-term condition for bulls. However, the next key resistance is at $68.43, the Jul 30 high, where a break is required to signal scope for a stronger recovery. For bears, a reversal lower would refocus attention on key support at $60.85. A break of this level would reinstate a bearish theme.
