USDJPY TECHS: Finds Support
- RES 4: 137.91 High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 136.58 61.8% retracement of the Mar 8 - 13 bear leg
- RES 2: 135.76 61.8% retracement of the Mar 8 - 13 bear leg
- RES 1: 134.88 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 134.74 @ 06:44 GMT Mar 15
- SUP 1: 132.29 Low Mar 13
- SUP 2: 131.31 61.8% retracement of the Jan 16 - Mar 8 rally
- SUP 3: 129.81 Low Feb 10
- SUP 4: 128.09 Low Feb 2
Recent weakness in USDJPY highlights potential for a deeper corrective pullback. However, the pair has found support at 132.29, Monday’s low. This level represents an important short-term support. A break would expose 131.31, a Fibonacci retracement point. For bulls, a continuation higher would open the 136.00 handle and signal scope for a test of the bull trigger at 137.91, the Mar 8 high.
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LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Key Events (Times GMT)
| Date | UK | Period | Event |
| 14-Feb | 0700 | Dec/Jan | Labour Market Survey |
| 15-Feb | 0700 | Jan | Inflation Report |
| 15-Feb | 0930 | Dec | ONS House Price Index |
| 16-Feb | 1700 | ---- | BOE Pill Fireside Chat at Warwick University Think Tank |
| 17-Feb | 0700 | Jan | Retail Sales |
| 21-Feb | 0700 | Jan | Public Sector Finances |
| 21-Feb | 0930 | Feb | S&P Global Flash Manufacturing/Services PMIs |
| 23-Feb | 0930 | ---- | BOE Mann Speech at Resolution Foundation |
| 23-Feb | 1045 | ---- | BOE Cunliffe Keynote Address at G20 Finance Meeting |
| 24-Feb | 0001 | Feb | Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence |
| 24-Feb | 1630 | ---- | BOE Tenreyro Panellist at NY Fed |
| 01-Mar | 0001 | Feb | BRC Monthly Shop Price Index |
| 06-Mar | 0930 | Feb | S&P Global Construction PMI |
| 07-Mar | 0001 | Feb | BRC-KPMG Shop Sales Monitor |
LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (Times GMT)
| Date | Time | Country | Event |
| 13-Feb | ---- | EU | ECB Lagarde & Panetta at Eurogroup Meeting |
| 14-Feb | ---- | EU | ECB de Guindos at ECOFIN Meeting |
| 14-Feb | 1000 | EU | GDP (p) / Employment |
| 15-Feb | 0800 | ES | HICP (f) |
| 15-Feb | 1000 | EU | Industrial Production / Trade Balance |
| 15-Feb | 1400 | EU | ECB Lagarde at Plenary Debate on ECB Annual Report |
| 16-Feb | 0915 | EU | ECB Panetta Discussion at Centre for European Reform |
| 16-Feb | 1500 | EU | ECB Lane Dow Lecture at NIES London |
| 16-Feb | 1945 | EU | ECB de Guindos Students Discussion |
| 17-Feb | 0700 | DE | PPI |
| 17-Feb | 0745 | FR | HICP (f) |
| 17-Feb | 0900 | EU | EZ Current Account |
| 20-Feb | 0700 | DE | PPI |
| 20-Feb | 1000 | EU | Construction Production |
| 20-Feb | 1500 | EU | Consumer Confidence Indicator (p) |
BUND TECHS: (H3) Bearish Outlook
- RES 4: 142.59 0.764 proj of the Jan 2 - 19 - 30 price swing
- RES 3: 141.70 High Dec 13
- RES 2: 140.73 High Jan 19 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 137.71/139.86 50-day EMA / High Feb 2
- PRICE: 136.00 @ 20:16 GMT Feb 12
- SUP 1: 135.62 Low Feb 8
- SUP 2: 135.08 Low Jan 4
- SUP 3: 134.52 76.4% retracement of the Jan 2 - 19 bull run
- SUP 4: 133.79 Low Jan 3
Bund futures are trading closer to their recent lows. The contract last week breached support at 136.38, the Jan 30 low and this has strengthened the current bearish cycle. The focus is on 135.08 next, the Jan 4 low. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, reinforcing current conditions and highlighting bearish sentiment. On the upside, resistance to watch is at 137.71, the 50-day EMA.
