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Gilts soften at the open, although the aforementioned mix of a soft quantities side within the latest REC report on jobs and fresh questions surrounding the independence of the Fed drives outperformance for long end UK paper vs. Tsys.

• Gilt futures trade as low as 92.30 before recovering, last -4 at 92.44.
• Initial support at the Jan 8 low (91.84), while Fibonacci resistance is clustered in above Friday highs (92.57, 92.72 & 92.91).
• Bulls remain in technical control despite this morning’s shallow pullback.
• Gilt yields flat to 1bp higher, curve steeper.
• Bulls continue to look to the ’25 low in 10s (4.363%), which equates to 92.69 in futures today. That yield level protects rising triangle support (4.335% today).
• SONIA futures now flat to +1.0 off highs as the long end softens. ~46bp of BoE easing priced through December.
• Little of note on the UK macro calendar for the remainder of the day. Note that the BoE will sell GBP800mln of short bucket gilts from its APF this afternoon.

• RES 4: $88.397 - 4.500 proj of the Oct 28 - Nov 13 - 21 price swing
• RES 3: $87.355 - 4.382 proj of the Oct 28 - Nov 13 - 21 price swing
• RES 2: $86.065 - 4.236 proj of the Oct 28 - Nov 13 - 21 price swing
• RES 1: $84.609 - Intraday high  
• PRICE: $84.223 @ 08:21 GMT Jan 12
• SUP 1: $72.087 - 20-day EMA  
• SUP 2: $63.626 - 50-day EMA   
• SUP 3: $60.815 - Low Dec 12
• SUP 4: $57.606 - Low Dec 9

Trend signals in Silver remain bullish. Today’s positive start to the week and a fresh cycle high, reinforce current conditions. The move higher maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant medium-term uptrend. Sights are on $86.065, a Fibonacci projection. Support to watch is $72.087, the 20-day EMA.

• RES 4: 1.4023 76.4% retracement of the Nov 5 - Dec 26 bear leg     
• RES 3: 1.3977 High Dec 4
• RES 2: 1.3950 61.8% retracement of the Nov 5 - Dec 26 bear leg 
• RES 1: 1.3920 High Jan 9
• PRICE: 1.3875 @ 08:13 GMT Jan 12
• SUP 1: 1.3848/3798 50- and 20-day EMA values 
• SUP 2: 1.3701 Low Jan 2 
• SUP 3: 1.3643 Low Dec 26 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.3576 Low Jul 23t   

Last week's extension higher in USDCAD undermines a recent bearish theme, signalling scope for a stronger short-term bull phase. The pair is through the 50-day EMA, at 1.3848. A clear break of this average highlights a stronger reversal. Sights are on 1.3950 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial support to watch is 1.3798, the 20-day EMA. A breach of it would instead highlight a possible reversal.