MEXICO: Final Sheinbaum Presser Before Easter Holiday Weekend
Apr-16 11:13
A brief flurry below 20.00 on Thursday for USDMXN proved short-lived. Dampened risk sentiment overnight has helped the pair consolidate back above this psychological mark, and back within the familiar trading range across this year.
Conflicting headlines surrounding Honda Motor Company crossed on Tuesday. Initially, Nikkei reports suggested that the Japanese was considering shifting production from Mexico and Canada to the US in response to auto tariffs. Later in the session, Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard reiterated that there would be no changes in the company’s production plan in Mexico. This was corroborated by Honda officials overnight, who stated there are plans to move production of its hybrid Civic from Japan to the US.
President Claudia Sheinbaum will speak during her daily media conference amid the latest news on trade disruptions and migrant deportations from the US. This will be the President’s last presser before national holidays in Mexico across Thursday and Friday.
During today’s session, Mexico is scheduled to sell MXN1.5b of 2026 floating bonds, MXN1.5b of 2028 floating bonds and MXN1.5b of 2030 floating bonds.
Equity Option Expiries in Notional Terms for Friday's Triple Witching.
US:
SPX: $2.91T vs $2.85T Friday.
NDX: $106.21bn vs $104.53bn.
Amazon: $16.24bn vs $15.33bn.
Apple: $21.57bn vs $20.86bn.
EU: As of Friday's Data.
SX5E: €252.84bn.
SX7E: €19.05bn.
DAX: €66.52bn.
CAC: €6.54bn.
FTSE: £24.27bn.
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Bear Threat In S&P E-Minis Remains Present
Mar-17 10:59
In the equity space, the trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bearish and fresh cycle lows last week reinforced current conditions. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode set-up highlighting a dominant downtrend. Sights are on 5483.50, a 2.00 projection of the Dec 6 ‘24 - Jan 13 - Feb 19 swing. Note that the short-term trend condition is oversold, a corrective bounce would allow this set-up to unwind. Firm resistance to watch is 5976.83, the 50-day EMA. First resistance is at 5726.75, the Mar 12 high.
The medium-term trend direction in the EUROSTOXX 50 futures contract remains up and the recent pullback is considered corrective - for now. However, note that support at the 50-day EMA, at 5314.94, has been pierced. A clear break of this average would highlight a stronger short-term bear threat and suggest scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 5202.00, the 50.0% retracement of the Dec 20 ‘24 - Mar 3 bull leg. A resumption of gains would open the 5600.00 handle.
GILTS: UBS Continue To Like 2s10s Steepeners
Mar-17 10:52
UBS expect the FY25/26 gilt remit to provide fresh steepening pressure for the 2s10s curve.
A couple of other factors also play into their view:
They expect “an uneventful MPC to offer little support to gilts, especially since the data following the last meeting has also been relatively strong”.
They are also of the view that “the broad-based deterioration in consumer confidence and ongoing drag from higher mortgage payments are posing downside risks to growth forecasts.”