SWEDEN: Final April CPIF Confirms Flash; Feels Supportive Of Dovish RB Guidance
Swedish April CPIF ex-energy confirmed flash estimates at 3.10% unrounded, still up from 2.97% in March but slightly below the Riksbank’s 3.15% projection from the March MPR. Overall, the details of the report feel supportive of the Riksbank’s dovish guidance tilt at the May decision.
- As expected, the timing of Easter pushed up volatile travel-sensitive services items such as international flights (24.28% Y/Y vs -10.62% prior) and package holidays (11.22% Y/Y vs -1.61% prior).
- Meanwhile, there were more encouraging developments in other services categories:
- Rents eased to 5.09% Y/Y (vs 5.23% prior).
- Medical services fell to 3.07% Y/Y (vs 3.95% prior).
- Recreation and culture services softened to 3.32% Y/Y (vs 3.98% prior).
- Catering services fell to 3.84% Y/Y (vs 4.07% prior).
- Elsewhere, insurance remained firm at 5.65% Y/Y (vs 5.53% prior), while financial services saw an annual price reset to 4.19% Y/Y (vs 0.0% prior).
- Food inflation softened from March’s 15 month high of 4.74% Y/Y to 4.49% in April, even as coffee inflation spiked to 42.19% Y/Y (vs 29.99% prior).
- Core goods saw offsetting contributions from clothing and footwear (1.54% Y/Y vs 1.37% prior) and furnishings and household equipment (-1.24% Y/Y (vs 0.53% prior).
- Headline CPIF was 2.30% Y/Y (vs 2.34% prior), in line with the Riksbank’s 2.29% projection. Electricity and fuel inflation fell to 04.42% Y/Y (vs -2.66% prior).
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (M5) Gains Highlight A Corrective Cycle
- RES 4: 5906.75 High Mar 6
- RES 3: 5837.25 High Mar 25 and the reversal trigger
- RES 2: 5724.13 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 5512.18 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 5450.00 @ 07:18 BST Apr 14
- SUP 1: 5098.16 61.8% retracement of the Apr 7 - 10 bounce
- SUP 2: 4832.00 Low Apr 7 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 4760.88 1.618 proj of the Feb 19 - Mar 13 - 25 price swing
- SUP 4: 4663.75 1.764 proj of the Feb 19 - Mar 13 - 25 price swing
A short-term reversal in S&P E-Minis last week highlights the start of what appears to be a corrective cycle. The trend condition has been oversold following recent weakness and the move higher is allowing this set-up to unwind. Initial resistance to watch is 5524.91, the 20-day EMA. Resistance at the 50-day EMA is at 5737.71. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 4832.00, the Apr 7 low.
USD: A Volatile Overnight session in FX
- It's another big session in FX, some wide overnight range in G10s as Market Participants continue to assess how much of a Safe Haven Currency the Dollar is, given the outlook growth Risk driven by Global Tariffs.
- DXY fell to its lowest level since May 2022 on Friday, the most Weighted EURUSD pair jumped to 1.1473, this was the best printed level for the EUR since February 2022, and just short of the 2022 high at 1.1495.
- Today the EURUS has settled back around the 1.1400 level, only printing a 1.1409 high.
- The Yen has taken over the NZD as the best early performing Currency, up 0.65%, but is still some way short of 142.25, the Overnight printed low in USDJPY.
- More interestingly, the Kiwi is clearing the April high, best level since December, next resistance comes at 0.5889, followed by the December high of 0.5927 in NZDUSD.
WTI TECHS: (K5) Trend Signals Remain Bearish
- RES 4: $74.66 - High Jan 22
- RES 3: $72.91 - High Feb 11
- RES 2: $67.56/72.28 - 50-day EMA / High Apr 2 and key resistance
- RES 1: $64.85 Low Mar 5 low and a recent breakout level.
- PRICE: $61.68 @ 07:14 BST Apr 14
- SUP 1: $55.12 - Low Apr 9
- SUP 2: $54.26 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 11 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
- SUP 3: $56.81 - 2.382 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 4 - 11 price swing
- SUP 4: $50.00 - Psychological round number
A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and last Wednesday's rally is - for now - considered corrective. The move higher is allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind. Recent weakness has resulted in the breach of a number of important support levels, reinforcing a bearish threat. A resumption of the bear cycle would open $54.26, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is seen at $64.85, the Mar 5 low and a recent breakout level.
