HUNGARY: Fidesz Narrows Tisza's Lead to 14 Points in New Poll

• RES 4: 159.45 High Jan 14 and the bull trigger 
• RES 3: 159.23 High Jan 23
• RES 2: 157.76 High Feb 09
• RES 1: 157.72 76.4% retracement of the Jan 14 - 27 bear leg 
• PRICE: 156.77 @ 08:39 GMT Feb 9  
• SUP 1: 155.80 50-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 154.55/152.10 Low Feb 2 / Low Jan 27 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 3: 151.98 38.2% of the Apr 22 ‘25 - Jan 14 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 151.44 Trendline support drawn from the Apr 22 ‘25 low 

A bull cycle in USDJPY remains in play and the pair is holding on to its latest gains. This week’s gains have resulted in a move through the 50-day EMA. The break undermines the recent bear theme and highlights a stronger short-term bull cycle. Sights are on 157.72, a Fibonacci retracement point. Clearance of this level would strengthen the bull theme. On the downside, a reversal would expose the key support at 152.10, the Jan 27 low.    

• RES 4: 0.8797 High Dec 17   
• RES 3: 0.8746 High Jan 21 and a key resistance  
• RES 2: 0.8733 High Jan 22
• RES 1: 0.8729 100-dma
• PRICE: 0.8723 @ 08:37 GMT Feb 9
• SUP 1: 0.8676/8613 20-day EMA / Low Feb 04 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.8597 Low Aug 14
• SUP 3: 0.8578 Low Jul 2 ‘25 
• SUP 4: 0.8544 50.0% retracement of the Dec ‘24 - Nov ‘25 bull cycle

Thursday’s strong bounce in EURGBP, and the continuation today, still appears corrective. Key short-term resistance to monitor is 0.8746, the Jan 21 high, where a break would signal a potential trend reversal. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position and this highlights a dominant downtrend. A resumption of weakness would open 0.8597, the Aug 14 low. The bear trigger is at 0.8613, the Feb 4 low.

• RES 4: 1.3889 1.00 proj of the Nov 4 - Jan 6 - Jan 19 price swing     
• RES 3: 1.3868 High Jan 27 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.3733/3814 High Feb 4 / high Jan 30  
• RES 1: 1.3615 High Feb 06
• PRICE: 1.3592 @ 08:30 GMT Feb 09
• SUP 1: 1.3509 Low Feb 6
• SUP 2: 1.3500 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3458 76.4% retracement of the Jan 19 - 27 upleg 
• SUP 4: 1.3402 Low Jan 22  

GBPUSD traded sharply lower Thursday, extending the current bear cycle and this has resulted in a breach of the 20-day EMA. The next key support to watch is at the 50-day EMA, at 1.3495. Note that moving average studies continue to highlight a dominant medium-term uptrend. However, a clear break of the 50-day EMA would undermine this theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement. Initial firm resistance is at 1.3733, the Feb 4 high.