US DATA: Fed Still Unlikely To Have November CPI, Payrolls By Dec Decision Time
Nov-19 16:05
In our latest MNI FedSpeak podcast we discussed the outlook for economic data releases as the Federal Reserve's December decision looms - we also opined on what the meeting decision and messaging might be. To hear the full episode (recorded Tuesday), click here.
- Despite the latest scheduling updates indicating an increasing likelihood of getting Q3 GDP and September PCE in the coming couple of weeks, MNI remains doubtful that the Fed will have nonfarm payrolls data for November (originally scheduled for Dec 5) by its December 9-10 meeting - particularly since the BLS backlog appears to be clearing only slowly, and the Thanksgiving holiday (Nov 27) approaches. We acknowledge that opinions are mixed on the November payrolls release, with some analysts still having a Dec 5 release as their base case.
- When and if it does come out, October's dataset would include only the Establishment survey but not Household survey results (so headline payrolls but not unemployment rate etc), so there is a chance a short report will be produced by early Dec.
- Overall we think there's a good case to combine the October and November reports due to the data collection deficiencies in October. Merely getting a headline payrolls number from October may not be enough to sway Fed decision-making - in the event of a weak figure, hawks may shrug off the noisiness and uncertainty surrounding the collection of data in the month, while most are looking more closely at the unemployment rate anyway as a gauge of labor market looseness.
- And while there has been no official word from BLS, October CPI's reading will almost certainly be cancelled, which should preclude the publication of an October PCE prices report altogether. The November CPI data was scheduled to be released on the morning of the FOMC decision but that looks extremely unlikely.
- We update our key data points schedule below. Our FAQ on rescheduled data (Nov 11) remains largely intact, though releases are coming out a little more slowly than we had anticipated, by a few days to about a week - here
- Also see MNI's Data Methodology Cheat Sheet (Nov 13 - including methodologies underlying data releases) - here
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US: Trump Talks On China Tariffs, Critical Minerals, AUKUS & Ukraine
Oct-20 16:02
Speaking at a bilateral meeting with Australian PM Anthony Albanese, US President Donald Trump confirms that he intends to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea during the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation annual summit at the end of the month. Trump claims that "China has been respectful of [the] US", but the potential 155% tariffs come in on 1 November unless a deal is agreed. Trump: "We'll see what we can do..We expect to get a fair deal". Says "I think we'll end up with a strong trade deal with China ...."
- Regarding his talks with Albanese, Trump says the two will discuss trade, submarines, military equipment and critical minerals/rare earths. Says the two countries will sign an agreement on the latter, and that the US is "also working with other countries" on rare earths in the wake of China's imposition of stricter export controls.
- While Trump says the process of Australia purchasing US subs under the AUKUS agreement is "moving along rapidly", the Secretary of the Navy John Phelan says the US is looking to "clarify ambiguity". Adds, "We're looking at the Aukus relationship and making it better for all three". This will be viewed as the US attempting to rework the agreement after the fact in an effort to draw greater funding from Australia and/or the UK.
- Trump on the war in Ukraine, says "I think we'll get there", referring to an eventual peace agreement. In a downbeat assessment for Kyiv and Europe, Trump says "Ukraine could still win it [the war]. I don't think they will...Anything could happen."
US TSYS: Post-Trump/China Tariff Headline React
Oct-20 16:00
- Treasury futures are holding mildly higher, off early morning highs following latest Trump headlines re: China tariffs target of 155% "if no deal by Nov 1". Pres Trump still expected to meet w/ Pres Xi in South Korea on October 29.
- The Dec'25 10Y futures contract trades +1.5 at 113-16.5, 113-10.5 low / 113-19 high on moderate volume of 690,000.
- Pres Trump greeted Australian PM at the White House at 1100ET, bilateral meeting & lunch ongoing & closed to press.
US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: Dec'25 30Y Sale
Oct-20 15:55
- -6,000 USZ5 118-22, sell through 118-24 post time bid at 1132:28ET, DV01 $780,000.
- The 30Y contract trades 118-22 last (+7)
