US: FED Reverse Repo Operation
NY Fed reverse repo usage falls back to $2,200.586B w/ 95 counterparties vs. $2,237.812B in the prior session. Prior record high stands at $2,425.910B on Friday, September 30.
NY Federal Reserve/MNI
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EURUSD TECHS: Bear Cycle Still In Play
- RES 4: 1.0198 High Sep 12 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 1.0051 High Sep 20
- RES 2: 0.9954/9999 Bear channel top from Feb 10 high / High Oct 4
- RES 1: 0.9840 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.9745 @ 19:43 BST Oct 11
- SUP 1: 0.9645 76.4% retracement of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 bull cycle
- SUP 2: 0.9536 Low Sep 28 and key support
- SUP 3: 0.9501 1.382 projection of the Aug 10 - Sep 6 - 12 price swing
- SUP 4: 0.9424 Bear channel base drawn from the Feb 10 high
EURUSD remains in a bear cycle inside the channel drawn from the Feb 10 high. Last week’s reversal from 0.9999 marked a failure at the top of the channel and with moving average tools continuing to point south, indications are that the pair is likely to depreciate further near-term. The focus is on 0.9536, the Sep 28 low. 0.9999 is the key resistance. Note that the channel top is just below at 0.9954 and also represents a key hurdle for bulls.
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z2) Short-Term Gains Considered Corrective
- RES 4: 116-11 50.0% retracement of the Aug 2 - Sep 28 bear leg
- RES 3: 115-04 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 114-31+ 38.2% retracement of the Aug 2 - Sep 28 bear leg
- RES 1: 113-04/30 20-day EMA / High Oct 4 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 111-16+ @ 19:24 BST Oct 11
- SUP 1: 110-19 Low Sep 28 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 110-00 Psychological Support
- SUP 3: 109-23+ Low Nov 30 2007 (cont)
- SUP 4: 108.27+ 3.0% 10-dma envelope
Treasuries remain soft but have found some support today. Short-term gains are considered corrective. The reversal last week from 113-30, Oct 4 high, marks the end of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 correction. MA studies remain in a bear mode position and attention is on the key support and bear trigger at 110-19, Sep 28 low. A break would confirm a resumption of the primary downtrend. Price needs to break above 113-30 to reinstate a short-term bullish theme.
US: Manchin Sees Collapse Of Approval Rating
Democrat Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) has seen a collapse in his approval rating following a summer where he played a pivotal role in pushing Democrat legislation through Congress.
- Manchin received backlash from Republicans after making a backroom deal with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) to revive the partisan reconciliation bill, formally known as Build Back Better but slimmed down and rebranded the Inflation Reduction Act, shortly after Senate Republicans agreed to pass the bipartisan Chips and Science Bill.
- According to Morning Consult, “Manchin saw a greater decline in his approval rating [around 10 percentage points since early in 2022] and a larger surge in disapproval than any other Senate incumbent,” placing him amongst the least popular Senators in Congress.
- Morning Consult: “The increase in disapproval was driven largely by West Virginia Republicans and independents...”
- The data will be of concern to Democrats as Manchin’s broad appeal as a centrist is seen as key to maintaining control of the West Virginia Senate seat. If trend continues then Democrats are likely to lose control of the seat in a 2024 election cycle already likely to favour the GOP.
