STIR: Fed Rates Await PCE and Cook Hearing, 21.5bp Cuts Seen Next Month
Aug-29 10:34
- Fed Funds implied rates are little changed ahead of an important docket, with little net change after a dovish but not increasingly so Waller after the close yesterday.
- Cumulative cuts from 4.33% effective: 21.5bp Sep, 34.5bp Oct, 55bp Dec, 67bp Jan and 81.5bp Mar.
- The SOFR implied terminal yield of 2.96% (SFRH7) is near unchanged on the day as it hovers at recent lows with nearly 140bp of cuts from current levels seen.
- Ahead, the July PCE report at 0830ET – we’ve seen unrounded analyst estimates average 0.28% M/M for July, unlikely to have been altered by yesterday’s small downward revision to Q2.
- US District Judge Jia Cobb will begin the Cook hearing at 1000ET today after Cook requested a restraining order as she seeks to remain in her role. FHFA’s Pulte sent a new (third) criminal referral against Cook late yesterday.
- Fed Gov. Waller yesterday in a speech entitled “Let’s Get On With It” (link): "I anticipate additional cuts over the next three to six months, and the pace of rate cuts will be driven by the incoming data.”
- “While I judge that the FOMC should have begun this process in July, based on the data in hand, I don't believe that a cut of larger than 25 basis points is needed in September. That view, of course, could change if the employment report for August, due out a week from tomorrow, points to a substantially weakening economy and inflation remains well contained.”
- “Based on the median of FOMC participants’ estimates of the longer-run value of the federal funds rate, neutral is 125 to 150 basis points lower than the current setting”.
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EU: Commission-18 Countries Apply For EUR127bln In Defence Loans Under SAFE
Jul-30 10:30
The European Commission has confirmed that an initial 18 member states have applied for a combined EUR127bln in loans to fund military procurement as part of the Security Action for Europe (SAFE) Defence Instrument. Belgium, Bulgaria, Czechia, Estonia, Greece, Spain, France, Croatia, Italy, Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia and Finland have all applied under the scheme, with applications running to 30 November.
- Euractiv outlines the process of application, assessment, and disbursal of funds: "Member states now have six months from the entry into force of the Regulation [29 May] to submit their initial national plans, which the Commission will then assess. Following a Commission proposal, the Council is expected to adopt implementing decisions, which will include the size of the loan and any pre-financing. Pre-financing, which can be up to 15% of the loan, will ensure that support can be paid swiftly to cover the most urgent needs, potentially starting in 2025. Member states will need to report on the progress of implementation when they submit their payment requests, which can be done twice a year. The last approval for disbursements can take place until 31 December 2030."
- The SAFE loans are seen as a major component of the 'Readiness 2030' plans (formerly known as 'ReArm Europe', but changed due to political sensitivities in Italy and Spain), alongside allowing the 'national escape clause' of the Stability and Growth Pact to allow for increased defence spending up to an additional 1% of GDP.
LOOK AHEAD: Wednesday Data Calendar: FOMC Rate Annc Follows ADP, GDP, PCE
Jul-30 10:24
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 07/30 0700 MBA Mortgage Applications (0.8%, --)
- 07/30 0815 ADP Employment Change (-33k, 76k)
- 07/30 0830 GDP Annualized QoQ (-0.5%, 2.6%)
- 07/30 0830 GDP Price Index (3.8%, 2.2%)
- 07/30 0830 Personal Consumption (0.5%, 1.5%)
- 07/30 0830 Core PCE Price Index QoQ (3.5%, 2.3%)
- 07/30 1000 Pending Home Sales MoM (1.8%, 0.2%), YoY (-0.3%, -2.1%)
- 07/30 1130 US Tsy $65B 17W bill auction
- 07/30 1400 FOMC rate annc (does not include summary economic projections)
- Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI
STIR: Next Fed Cut Seen In Oct; FOMC Ahead After ADP and GDP
Jul-30 10:22
- Fed Funds implied rates hold yesterday’s decline that was helped by but started before softer 1000ET data including a broadly dovish JOLTS report relative to expectations.
- Cumulative cuts from 4.33% effective: 1bp for today’s decision, 17bp Sep, 29.5bp Oct, 46.5bp Dec, 55.5bp Jan, 68bp Mar.
- The SOFR implied terminal yield of 3.17% (SFRH7) is unchanged on the day, holding yesterday’s 7bp decline to push back towards the middle of the 3.1-3.3% range seen through July.
- MNI Fed Preview for today’s decision: https://media.marketnews.com/Fed_Prev_Jul2025_With_Analysts_002622ac0e.pdf
- Before then, ADP employment (0815ET) and flash Q2 GDP/PCE estimates (0830ET) headline data with the latter landing alongside Treasury’s QRA in case there is any spillover from surprises in shorter-dated issuance plans. In addition, President Trump is set to make a final call on a China tariff truce extension, with one touted option being for 90 days.
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