STIR: Fed Rate Path Dips But Holds Three Cuts For 2024
Mar-20 10:37
- Fed Funds implied rates have dipped a little further overnight (0-1bps), as softer UK CPI added to yesterday’s larger spillover from CAD CPI.
- Cumulative cuts from 5.33% effective: 0.5bp Mar, 2.5bp May, 17bp Jun, 27bp Jul and 74bp Dec.
- Despite cooling, the Dec’24 implied rate remains slightly above the median dot from the Dec SEP, as has been the case since late last week.
- Today’s refreshed dot plot is in focus – see the full MNI Preview here: https://roar-assets-auto.rbl.ms/files/60396/FedPrevMar2024%20-%20With%20analysts.pdf
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RIKSBANK: 2023 Profit Transferred Into Primary Capital
Feb-19 10:36
The Riksbank's General Council has confirmed that the SEK16bln profit generated by the Central Bank in 2023 will be transferred to the Riksbank's primary capital and not to the Treasury.
- "The profit is not sufficiently large to ensure that the Riksbank’s equity after the allocation of profits will reach the target level for equity pursuant to the Sveriges Riksbank Act", per the Riksbank's press release.
- This comes as no surprise, and further details on the allocation of profits will be available in the Riksbank's recapitalisation petition to the Riksdag in March. We wrote extensively on this topic in a recent analysis piece here.
- A reminder that the Riksbank's full 2023 Annual Report is expected to be published tomorrow (Feb 20).
GERMAN T-BILL AUCTION RESULTS: 12-Month Bubill: Technically uncovered
Feb-19 10:34
| Type | 12-month bubill |
| Maturity | Feb 19, 2025 |
| Allotted | E2.425bln |
| Previous | E2.957bln |
| Total sold | E3bln |
| Target | E3bln |
| Avg yield | 3.359% |
| Previous | 3.189% |
| Bid-to-offer | 0.92x |
| Previous | 2.00x |
| Bid-to-cover | 1.14x |
| Previous | 2.02x |
| Previous date | Jan 15, 2024 |
OPTIONS: Larger FX Option Pipeline
Feb-19 10:29
- EUR/USD: Feb20 $1.0675-80(E1.0bln), $1.0700-20(E1.2bln) ; Feb21 $1.0778-80(E2.0bln); Feb22 $1.0900-05(E1.1bln)
- USD/JPY: Feb20 Y149.85-00($1.0bln), Y150.50($1.4bln); Feb21 Y149.95-00($1.6bln)
- EUR/GBP: Feb20 Gbp0.8530-50(E1.7bln)
- AUD/USD: Feb20 $0.6400(A$1.1bln), $0.6475-85(A$1.1bln)
- USD/CNY: Feb20 Cny7.1855($1.1bln)
