BRENT TECHS: (F6) Trading Below Short-Term Resistance
- RES 4: $71.45 - 76.4% retracement of the Jun 23 - Oct 20 bear leg
- RES 3: $70.69 - High Jul 30
- RES 2: $69.29 - High Sep 26 and a key resistance
- RES 1: $65.95 - High Oct 24
- PRICE: $64.64 @ 07:03 GMT Nov 19
- SUP 1: $59.97 - Low Nov 20 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: $58.72 - Low May 5
- SUP 3: $57.99 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
- SUP 4: $56.05 - 2.00 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing
Brent futures are trading inside a range. A sell-off on Nov 12 highlights a bearish development. A resumption of weakness would expose key support and the bear trigger at $59.97, the Oct 20 low. Clearance of this support would confirm a resumption of the bear cycle. Note it is still possible that a bullish corrective cycle remains in play. A breach of resistance at $65.95, the Oct 24 high, would signal scope for a stronger recovery near-term.
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SILVER TECHS: Trading Above Support
- Trading Above SupportRES 4: $56.153 2.500 proj of the Aug 20 - Sep 16 - 17 price swing
- RES 3: $55.444 2.382 proj of the Aug 20 - Sep 16 - 17 price swing
- RES 2: $55.00 - Round number resistance
- RES 1: $54.567 - 2.236 proj of the Aug 20 - Sep 16 - 17 price swing
- PRICE: $51.753 @ 08:10 BST Oct 20
- SUP 1: $48.736 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: $44.692 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: $41.135 - Low Sep 17
- SUP 4: $40.404 - Low Sep 4
Trend signals in Silver remain bullish. The metal traded to a fresh cycle high again, on Friday. The move higher confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on $54.567, a Fibonacci projection, and the $55.00 handle. Note that the trend is in overbought territory, a deeper pullback would allow this condition to unwind. Support to watch is $48.736, the 20-day EMA.
EGBS: OATs Open Lower, Need to Push Back to 123.17 to Close Gap
- Some notable early flow across EGBs and especially in OATs following S&P's rating downgrade on Friday. The French 10yr gapped lower at the open and would need a push back to 123.17 to close it.
- German PPI came in below expectations, helping the Bund a few ticks higher but price action remains short of the initial resistance of 130.18. Initial support in Bunds is unchanged at 129.13.
- The 2yr part of the curve is leading in early trade as Schatz volumes are already higher relative to the 5yr Bobl.
- There are no tier data releases left for the session today, with UK CPI on Wednesday, prelim PMIs and the US CPI on Friday the main focus on the data front.
Speakers today include ECB's Schnabel, Nagel & Vujcic. The FOMC have entered their pre-meeting media blackout period.
USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Trend Structure
- RES 4: 1.4200 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 1.4167 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.4111 High Apr 10
- RES 1: 1.4080 High Oct 16 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.4027 @ 08:03 BST Oct 20
- SUP 1: 1.3965/3889 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: 1.3814 Bull channel base drawn from the Jul 23 low
- SUP 3: 1.3727 Low Aug 29 and a bear trigger
- SUP 4: 1.3689 Low Jul 28
A bull cycle in USDCAD remains intact and the pair is trading closer to its recent highs. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.4111, the Apr 10 high, and further out, scope is seen for an extension towards 1.4167, a Fibonacci retracement. First key support lies at 1.3889, the 50-day EMA. Support at the 20-day EMA lies at 1.3965.
