European long-end yields fell slightly Tuesday, with UK CPI data looming.
- The highlight of the session was the release of UK September public finance data which showed a slightly lower-than-expected public sector net borrowing figure plus downward revision to August.
- That saw the UK yield curve bull flatten, mirrored across EGBs, and accelerating in mid-afternoon after US President Trump said on social media that there was a possibility of allies potentially "going into Gaza with a heavy force".
- The German curve bull flattened, with the UK's twist flattening.
- Periphery/semi-core EGB spreads closed slightly wider.
- Wednesday's scheduled highlight is the UK inflation data release - MNI's preview is here. As we note in the preview, despite some BOE MPC members appearing to have more entrenched views, we think that this data release will have huge importance for the prospects for a Q4 cut.
Closing Yields / 10-Yr EGB Spreads To Germany
- Germany: The 2-Yr yield is unchanged at 1.908%, 5-Yr is down 1.3bps at 2.155%, 10-Yr is down 2.5bps at 2.552%, and 30-Yr is down 3.6bps at 3.128%.
- UK: The 2-Yr yield is up 0.4bps at 3.858%, 5-Yr is down 0.9bps at 3.944%, 10-Yr is down 2.7bps at 4.478%, and 30-Yr is down 4.3bps at 5.266%.
- Italian BTP spread up 0.3bps at 79.2bps / French OAT up 0.7bps at 79.2bps