OPTIONS: Expiries for Nov12 NY cut 1000ET (Source DTCC)
Nov-12 08:48
- EUR/USD: $1.1500-05(E1.1bln), $1.1550(E790mln), $1.1585-90(E565mln), $1.1645-50(E855mln), $1.1688-90(E1.3bln)
- USD/JPY: Y154.00($500mln)
- GBP/USD: $1.3100(Gbp1.9bln), $1.3150(Gbp674mln), $1.3225-30(Gbp1.3bln)
- AUD/USD: $0.6500(A$1.4bln), $0.6530-50(A$1.4bln)
- NZD/USD: $0.5600(N$538mln)
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EGBS: 10-year Spreads To Bunds Unwind Friday's Tariff Induced Widening
Oct-13 08:38
10-year EGB spreads to Bunds have partially unwound Friday’s US/China tariff-induced widening, with equities recovering following the White House’s softened weekend stance. The BTP/Bund spread is down 1bp at ~80.7bps, after reaching a high of 82bps on Friday.
- The 10-year OLO/Bund spread is 0.5bs narrower at ~56.2bps. Moody’s completed a periodic review of Belgium’s ratings on Friday, with no action taken. This was in line with our expectations, but markets may have embedded some risk of a downgrade ahead of the event - this is now being unwound. OLOs still face risks though, with Belgium’s debt/deficit trajectory on a similar (if not worse) trajectory than that of France. Markets are still awaiting details of Belgium’s 2026 budget.
- Markets remain sensitive to French headline flow. Lecornu’s reappointment as PM is unlikely to reduce medium-term fiscal/political challenges facing France, so scope for meaningful OAT/Bund tightening still appears limited. OATs currently underperform peers, with the 10-year spread to Bunds little changed at ~83bps.
- Local media report that Lecornu will aim for a 2026 budget deficit of “below 5%”. This will likely be larger than the 4.7% deficit he initially targeted.
BOBL: Block trade
Oct-13 08:38
Bobl Block trade, suggest buyer:
- OEZ5 ~3.13k at 118.23.
EGB OPTIONS: Bund Call Spread vs Put Condor
Oct-13 08:32
RXX5 130.00/132.00 cs vs RXX5 127.50/126.50/125.50/123.00 broken p condor, bought back the cs for 12 in 7.25k.
