OPTIONS: Expiries for Jan08 NY cut 1000ET (Source DTCC)

Brief selling pressure in benchmark equity indices has reversed after the FT report suggesting that “Beijing is set to limit access to Nvidia’s advanced H200 chips despite Donald Trump’s decision to allow the export of the technology to China as it pushes to achieve self-sufficiency in semiconductor production”.

• China’s push for semiconductor independence is already well documented. Meanwhile, some of China’s largest tech names have continued to show their preference for Nvidia chips outside of some basic AI functions (you would imagine that the bulk of their requests on this front would be met, as not to hinder the development of the sector on the whole, with domestic chips seemingly unable to meet the needs of the sector at present).
• Nvidia trims pre-market gains following the headlines, last indicated +0.2% vs. closing levels.
• The knee-jerk weakness takes both S&P 500 e-minis and Euro Stoxx 50 futures to fresh session lows, although the contracts do not test yesterday’s worst levels before recovering.
• While markets remain sensitive to AI- & Nvidia-related headlines (owing to the surge in related valuations and index weightings in recent times), the story seemingly doesn’t introduce much in the way of fresh news, explaining the quick fade of the selling pressure.

• In FX, EURUSD continues to trade closer to its recent highs and a bull cycle remains intact for now. The recent breach of 1.1656, the Nov 13 high and a bull trigger, highlights a potential reversal and opens 1.1694 next, the 50.0% retracement of the Sep 17 - Nov 5 bear leg. Clearance of this retracement point would strengthen the developing bull theme. Initial support to watch is 1.1605, the 20-day EMA. A breach of the EMA would be bearish.
• A bull theme in GBPUSD remains intact. The latest pause appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation signal. The breach of the 50-day EMA undermines a recent bearish theme and highlights a stronger reversal. This opens 1.3452, a 50.0% retracement of the Sep 17 - Nov 4 bear leg. Initial firm support is seen at 1.3235, the 20-day EMA. A move below this average would be a bearish development.
• Recent weakness in USDJPY is considered corrective and the deeper retracement has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. Key short-term support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA at 153.58. A clear breach of the average would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant medium-term uptrend. A resumption of the uptrend would open 158.00.

The FT reports that China may restrict access to Nvidia’s H200 chips despite approval for shipment from US President Trump yesterday.  A brief downtick in equity futures is noted around the timing of the story, but the move lacks traction for now. Some highlights from the story:

• "Beijing is set to limit access to Nvidia’s advanced H200 chips despite Donald Trump’s decision to allow the export of the technology to China as it pushes to achieve self-sufficiency in semiconductor production."
• "According to two people with knowledge of the matter, regulators in Beijing have been discussing ways to permit limited access to the H200, Nvidia’s second-best generation of artificial intelligence chips."
• "Buyers would probably be required to go through an approval process, the people said, submitting requests to purchase the chips and explaining why domestic providers were unable to meet their needs."
• "No final decision had been made yet, the people added."