OPTIONS: Expiries for Feb04 NY cut 1000ET (Source DTCC)
Feb-04 08:37
- EUR/USD: $1.1600(E1.7bln), $1.1800(E1.2bln), $1.1850(E1.7bln)
- USD/JPY: Y151.50($1.1bln), Y153.25($801mln), Y156.25($663mln)
- AUD/USD: $0.6950(A$2.0bln)
- NZD/USD: $0.5975(N$746mln)
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
EURIBOR OPTIONS: Call Fly buyer
Jan-05 08:36
ERM6 98.12/98.25/98.37c fly, bought for 0.75 in 5k.
GILTS: Off Friday Lows
Jan-05 08:32
Gilts firm away from late Friday lows as they look to cues from wider core global Fi markets. The U.S. toppling of Venezuelan President Maduro may be providing background support as Europe filters in.
- Futures +13 at 90.91. Key directional triggers remain at 90.50 & 91.93.
- Yields 2bp lower across the curve. 2s are ~3bp off Dec lows, while 10s are ~4bp off Dec highs.
- 2s10s above 80bp, threatening a break above the Nov high (80.305bp). A break there would expose the Sep high (83.794bp) which protects the ’25 top (84.583bp).
- A re-intensification of lingering UK fiscal risks or fresh dovish BoE-related repricing present the most obvious potential catalysts for a retest of ’25 highs on the curve.
- Meanwhile, 5s30s trades closer to post-Budget lows than pre-Budget highs, largely owing to the well-documented shortening of WAM of DMO supply.
- GBP STIRs incrementally more dovish than pre-gilt open levels. SONIA futures flat to +2.0, BoE-dated OIS pricing ~41bp of easing through November.
- Elsewhere, PM Starmer has suggested that the UK should move towards closer alignment with EU markets "if it's in our national interest". Starmer once again played down suggestions that his position as leader of the Labour Party was under threat.
- Money supply and bank lending data is due from the UK today, ahead of the final services PMI reading tomorrow.
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H6) Bear Threat Remains Present
Jan-05 08:19
- RES 4: 113-07 High Dec 3
- RES 3: 113-00+ 61.8% retracement of the Nov 25 - Dec 10 bear leg
- RES 2: 112-25+ high Dec 30 / 31
- RES 1: 112-20 50 -day EMA
- PRICE: 112-09+ @ 08:02 GMT Jan 5
- SUP 1: 112-01+/111-29 Low Dec 23 / 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 111-19 1.236 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 5 - 25 price swing
- SUP 3: 111-11 1.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 5 - 25 price swing
- SUP 4: 111-00 Round number support
Treasuries continue to trade above key support at 111-29, the Dec 10 low and a bear trigger. The trend theme remains bearish and a break of 111-29 would confirm a resumption of the bear cycle. This would open 111-19 initially, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 112-31, the Dec 18 high, where a break would undermine a bear theme and signal scope for a stronger recovery instead.
