DENMARK: Exit Polls Show Frederiksen’s Social Democrats With Most Votes: TV2

• RES 4: 1.2081 High Jan 27 and key resistance   
• RES 3: 1.2007 76.4% retracement of the Jan 27 - Feb 6 bear leg 
• RES 2: 1.1961 61.8% retracement of the Jan 27 - Feb 6 bear leg 
• RES 1: 1.1857/1929 High Feb 18 / 10
• PRICE: 1.1783 @ 19:12 GMT Feb 20
• SUP 1: 1.1742 Low Feb 19
• SUP 2: 1.1693 76.4% retracement of the Jan 19 - 27 bull leg
• SUP 3: 1.1670 Low Jan 22
• SUP 4: 1.1573 Low Jan 19 and a key support

A bear cycle in EURUSD remains intact and last week’s sell-off reinforces current conditions. The pair breached support at 1.1805, the Feb 17 low, on Thursday to cancel the reversal candle pattern last Tuesday. Thursday’s extension resulted in a break of 1.1766, the Feb 6 low. The clear breach of this level signals scope for a deeper retracement. This has opened 1.1693, a Fibonacci retracement. Key S/T resistance is 1.1929, the Feb 10 high.

Below is a summary of next week's major scheduled macro/Fed events:

Our US weekly macro publication can be found here.

• Friday’s announcement of the US Supreme Court decision to strike down the White House’s International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) tariffs overshadowed the week’s data and Fed developments.
• Even if the court’s decision wasn’t entirely shocking (prediction markets indicated only a 25% probability that the court would uphold the tariffs), it left open questions over whether and when tariff refunds will be paid, and potential impacts on existing trade deals negotiated under the auspices of IEEPA.
• One thing that does seem clear is that the sudden drop in tariff rates will be reversed at least partially, muting the longer-run macro impact. The administration was quick to announce a global 10% tariff via Section 122 authority with Section 232 and 301 tariffs to remain and be expanded over time. Treasury Secretary Bessent said that this approach would result in “virtually unchanged tariff revenue in 2026”.
• Elsewhere, real GDP surprised much lower than expected at 1.4% annualized (cons 2.8) in the Q4 advance release after 4.4% in Q3, although the government sector weighed heavily owing to the shutdown and a very strong deflator. Private demand metrics were close to expectations with PDFP at 2.35%.
• Core PCE inflation was in line with unrounded expectations in the delayed December report at 0.355% M/M whilst it ended the year at 3.0% Y/Y (highest since Apr 2024). Core goods inflation accelerated to 2.0% Y/Y (highest since May 2023) whilst supercore PCE inflation at 3.3% Y/Y saw zero disinflationary progress compared to the 3.3% averaged across 2025.
• Second tier data saw some sizeable strength with core durable goods accelerating in a positive sign of business investment and with industrial production growth regaining traction and broadening out.
• Labor data saw some sequential improvements as well, with weekly ADP rising an average 10.25k per week for its fastest since late November and initial jobless claims surprised notably lower.
• Business sentiment indicators were more mixed however, including the flash PMIs for February slipping with the manufacturing index at a seven-month low and services at a ten-month low. It came against a backdrop of strong input and selling cost inflation.
• The December trade deficit surprised higher on a pullback in gold net exports. Tech-led capital goods imports continue to surge but are offset by consumer and industrial goods in tariff front-running payback.
• The FOMC minutes had a hawkish addition with “several” members wanted to keep open the possibility that the next Fed rate move could be a hike, not necessarily a cut.
• Gov. Miran meanwhile pared back his rate cut view, seeing a need for 100bp vs 150bp of cuts this year.
• Near-term, last week’s NFP-driven hawkish shift has extended further this week, with just 15bp of cuts priced for the June FOMC. There is however still a cumulative 56bp of cuts to year-end and terminal yields are at still the dovish end of recent ranges.