EURUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 1.1055 1.236 projection of the Apr 16 - Jun 4 - 26 price swing
- RES 3: 1.0981 High Mar 3 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 1.0964 High Mar 13
- RES 1: 1.0948 High Jul 17
- PRICE: 1.0884 @ 08:17 BST Jul 23
- SUP 1: 1.0872/73 Low Jul 16 / Jul 22
- SUP 2: 1.0828/1.0736 20-day EMA / Low Jul 3
- SUP 3: 1.0666 Low Jun 26 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 1.0650 Low May 1
A bull cycle in EURUSD remains in play and Wednesday’s gains reinforce this theme. Key short-term resistance at 1.0916, the Jun 4 high, has been cleared confirming a resumption of the bull cycle. The break paves the way for a climb towards 1.0964, the Mar 13 high, ahead of a key short-term resistance at 1.0981, the Mar 8 high. On the downside, firm short-term support lies at 1.0828, the 20-day EMA.
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AUSSIE 10-YEAR TECHS: (U4) Off Highs, But Still Firm
- RES 3: 96.207 - 61.8% of the Mar 14 - Nov 1 ‘23 bear leg
- RES 2: 96.110 - High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 95.923 - High Jun 14
- PRICE: 95.770 @ 16:25 BST Jun 21
- SUP 1: 95.235 - 76.4% retracement of the Nov - Dec ‘23 rally
- SUP 2: 94.965 - Low Oct 31 ‘23
- SUP 3: 94.866 - 2.618 proj of the Dec 28 - Jan 19 - Feb 2 price swing
The corrective rally in Aussie 10y futures persisted into last week’s close, with new highs printed at 95.923. Any resumption of weakness would signal scope for a move towards 95.235, a Fibonacci retracement point on the continuation chart. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 96.110 on the continuation chart. A firm break would highlight a possible reversal and signal scope for further gains.
USDCAD TECHS: Watching Support
- RES 4: 1.3977 High Oct 13 ‘23 and a key M/T resistance
- RES 3: 1.3899 High Nov 1 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 1.3846/55 High Apr 16 and the bull trigger / High Nov 10 2023
- RES 1: 1.3792 High Jun 11
- PRICE: 1.3711 @ 16:42 BST Jun 21
- SUP 1: 1.3675 Low June 21
- SUP 2: 1.3547 Low Apr 9
- SUP 3: 1.3512 50.0% retracement of the Dec 27 - Apr 16 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 1.3478 Low Apr 4
USDCAD has traded lower this week and has pierced the Jun 12 low of 1.3680, and 1.3676, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of these supports would signal scope for a continuation lower near-term, towards key support at 1.3590, the May 16 low. A clear break of this level would threaten a bullish theme. The trend outlook remains bullish, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on the medium-term resistance at 1.3846, the Apr 16 high.
US TSYS: Off Post-Flash PMI Lows, Triple Witching Ahead
- Treasuries are mildly weaker - back near early overnight levels following mixed global PMI levels. Treasuries extended support after soft French, German and Eurozone composite flash PMIs during early London hours -- but gapped lower after slightly higher than expected US flash PMIs in Mfg (51.7 vs. 51.0 est), Services (55.1 vs. 54.0) and Composite (54.6 vs. 53.5 est).
- Little reaction to a dip in May Existing Home Sales to 4.11m (cons 4.10m) after an unrevised 4.14m.
- Session lows were marked at midmorning (Sep'24 10Y at 110-11.5) and spent the rest of the session see-sawing off lows to 110-16.5 (-1), 10Y yield -.0098 at 4.2496%.
- Projected rate cut pricing remains steady to mildly lower vs. this morning's levels (*): July'24 at -10% w/ cumulative at -2.5bp at 5.302%, Sep'24 cumulative -17.6bp (-18.4bp), Nov'24 cumulative -26.6bp (-27.8bp), Dec'24 -46.7bp (-47.2bp).
- Cross asset focus on equity market triple witching expiration of quarterly stock options, index futures and index options and Nvidia swapping ETF weighting with Apple late Friday.
