EUR: EURSEK new all time record high

Jul-06 07:59
  • A new all time record high for the EURSEK, now eyeing the 11.90 level.
  • Looking at tech, there isn't much until 12.00.

Chart source: MNI/Bloomberg

Historical bullets

CROSS ASSET: HSI & CNH Unwind Knee-Jerk On Chinese Bank Deposit Rate Cut Speculation

Jun-06 07:51

CNH and the Hang Seng index more than unwind initial, modest gains derived from the BBG sources piece noting that “Chinese authorities asked the nation’s biggest banks to lower their deposit rates for at least the second time in less than a year, marking an escalated effort to boost the world’s second-largest economy.”

  • The piece went on to suggest that “state-owned lenders were last week advised to cut rates on a range of products, including on demand deposits by 5bp and three-year and five-year time deposits by at least 10bp.” The moves are not mandatory, per the report.
  • While the move would provide some initial cushion for bank NIMs (which authorities are acutely attuned to), it would likely result in lower lending rates, eventually (eroding some, if not all, of the NIM benefits). This dynamic is probably factoring into the weakening in CNH (USD/CNH topped out just in front of YtD highs), as the cross-market interest rate differential outlook is re-assessed.
  • Also note that some initial reactions to the headlines have suggested that the touted move could be a result of the authorities getting an early look at May’s credit data (due to hit at some point in the next ~10 days). This can’t be seen as a given, with state-run media outlets already flagging a recovery in credit deployment in May (albeit with a Y/Y decline still touted). However, in the details, a touted lack of recovery in household loans may have contributed to the deposit rate cut request.

US TSY FLOWS: Tnotes targets yesterday's high

Jun-06 07:43
  • Bund, BTP, OAT are leading Govies higher, helping Treasuries to session high.
  • TYU3 targets yesterday's high at 114.03+, now trading at 114.01.

BUNDS: Extending gains

Jun-06 07:31
  • Some upside continuation for the German Bund, initially finding a bid as Equities saw some selling on the cash open, but the contract saw some upside momentum following Knot's comments that seems to be leaning on the Dovish side, from the most Hawkish member.
  • This is more of a Rate move, with the Euribor strip also trading at its top of the range.
  • Resistance in Bund is still at 134.72 initially.