LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)
Aug-14 05:18
| Date | Time | Country | Event |
| 14-Aug | 745 | FR | HICP (f) |
| 14-Aug | 1000 | EU | Industrial Production / GDP (p) |
| 16-Aug | 1000 | EU | Trade Balance |
| 20-Aug | 700 | DE | PPI |
| 20-Aug | 900 | EU | EZ Current Account |
| 20-Aug | 1000 | EU | HICP (f) |
| 20-Aug | 1000 | EU | Construction Production |
| 22-Aug | 815 | FR | S&P Global Services/ Manufacturing/ Composite PMI (p) |
| 22-Aug | 830 | DE | S&P Global Services/ Manufacturing/ Composite PMI (p) |
| 22-Aug | 900 | EU | S&P Global Services/ Manufacturing/ Composite PMI (p) |
| 22-Aug | 1500 | EU | Consumer Confidence Indicator (p) |
| 23-Aug | 745 | FR | Manufacturing Sentiment |
| 23-Aug | 900 | EU | ECB Consumer Expectations Survey |
| 24-Aug | 1725 | EU | ECB's Lane in panel on transmission of monetary policy |
| 25-Aug | 1600 | EU | ECB's Cipollone in panel at the Rimini Meeting |
| 26-Aug | 800 | ES | PPI |
| 26-Aug | 900 | DE | IFO Business Climate Index |
| 26-Aug | 1400 | BE | BNB Business Sentiment |
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LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)
Jul-15 05:18
| Date | Time (BST) | Country | Event |
| 15-Jul | 800 | EU | ECB's Lagarde and Cipollone in Eurogroup meeting |
| 15-Jul | 1000 | EU | Industrial Production |
| 16-Jul | 800 | EU | ECB's De Guindos in ECONFIN meeting |
| 16-Jul | 900 | EU | ECB Bank Lending Survey |
| 16-Jul | 900 | IT | Italy Final HICP |
| 16-Jul | 1000 | DE | ZEW Index |
| 16-Jul | 1000 | EU | Trade Balance |
| 17-Jul | 1000 | EU | HICP (f) |
| 18-Jul | 1000 | EU | Construction Production |
| 18-Jul | 1315 | EU | ECB Governing Council Meeting |
| 18-Jul | 1345 | EU | ECB Monetary Policy Press Conference |
| 18-Jul | 1515 | EU | Lagarde presents MonPol decision on podcast |
| 19-Jul | 700 | DE | PPI |
| 19-Jul | 900 | EU | EZ Current Account |
| 23-Jul | 800 | EU | ECB's Lane at ECB/IMF conference in Frankfurt |
| 23-Jul | 1500 | EU | Consumer Confidence Indicator (p) |
US TSYS: Tsys Futures Steady After Opening Lower, Powell To Speak Later
Jul-15 05:18
- Treasury futures are steady after opening trading lower, front-end quickly erased most of the early losses with TUU4 trading just -0-00¾ at 102-17⅞, while TYU4 is -0-09 at 110-29.
- Volumes surged this morning, although tapered off as the day progressed we still sit average recent average with TU 68k, FV 105k & TY 164k
- Cash trading is close today with Japan out, but looking at moves in futures the treasury curve has bear steepened, while the long-end is 4-6bps cheaper.
- Looking across volatility markets, despite the weekend events haven markets have been relatively stable with the VIX little changed. Implied volatility for September TY futures has bounced of yearly lows of 5.41 and now trades at 5.71
- Projected rate cut pricing into year end look firmer vs. early Friday (*): July'24 at -6.5% w/ cumulative at -1.6bp at 5.313%, Sep'24 cumulative -25.2bp (-24.1bp), Nov'24 cumulative -41.4bp (-38.5bp), Dec'24 -62.9bp (-59.6bp).
- Today, Fed Chair Powell makes his final scheduled appearance ahead of the pre-July FOMC meeting communications blackout period & Empire Manufacturing
EURGBP TECHS: Pierces Key Support
Jul-15 05:11
- RES 4: 0.8586 76.4% retracement of the Apr 23 - Jun 14 bear leg
- RES 3: 0.8568 High May 20
- RES 2: 0.8485/99 50-day EMA / High Jul 1
- RES 1: 0.8453 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.8396 @ 06:10 BST Jul 15
- SUP 1: 0.8389 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 0.8388 Low Aug 17 2022
- SUP 3: 0.8366 2.236 proj of the Apr 23 - 30 - May 9 price swing
- SUP 4: 0.8322 2.618 proj of the Apr 23 - 30 - May 9 price swing
A bear cycle in EURGBP remains intact and the cross has traded lower today.The sell-off last week resulted in a print below key support at 0.8397, the Jun 14 low and the bear trigger. Clearance of this level would resume the medium-term downtrend and pave the war for an extension towards 0.8366, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is seen at 0.8453, the 20-day EMA.
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