LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)
Aug-08 05:18
| Date | Time | Country | Event |
| 09-Aug | 700 | DE | HICP (f) |
| 09-Aug | 900 | IT | Italy Final HICP |
| 13-Aug | 800 | ES | HICP (f) |
| 13-Aug | 1000 | DE | ZEW Current Conditions/ Expectations Index |
| 14-Aug | 745 | FR | HICP (f) |
| 14-Aug | 1000 | EU | Industrial Production / GDP (p) |
| 16-Aug | 1000 | EU | Trade Balance |
| 20-Aug | 700 | DE | PPI |
| 20-Aug | 900 | EU | EZ Current Account |
| 20-Aug | 1000 | EU | HICP (f) / Construction Production |
| 22-Aug | 815 | FR | S&P Global Flash PMI |
| 22-Aug | 830 | DE | S&P Global Flash PMI |
| 22-Aug | 900 | EU | S&P Global Flash PMI |
| 22-Aug | 1500 | EU | Consumer Confidence Indicator (p) |
| 23-Aug | 700 | SE | Unemployment |
| 23-Aug | 745 | FR | Manufacturing Sentiment |
| 23-Aug | 900 | EU | ECB Consumer Expectations Survey |
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LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)
Jul-09 05:18
| Date | Time | Country | Event |
| 09-Jul | 1000 | EU | ECB's Cipollone at digital euro events by CB of Cyprus |
| 10-Jul | 900 | IT | Industrial Production |
| 11-Jul | 700 | DE | HICP (f) |
| 12-Jul | FR | HICP (f) | |
| 12-Jul | 800 | ES | HICP (f) |
| 15-Jul | 700 | DE | Retail Sales |
| 15-Jul | 800 | EU | ECB's Lagarde and Cipollone in Eurogroup meeting |
| 15-Jul | 1000 | EU | Industrial Production |
| 16-Jul | 800 | EU | ECB's De Guindos in ECONFIN meeting |
| 16-Jul | 900 | EU | ECB Bank Lending Survey |
| 16-Jul | 900 | IT | Italy Final HICP |
| 16-Jul | 1000 | DE | ZEW Current/Expectations Conditions Index |
| 16-Jul | 1000 | EU | Trade Balance |
| 17-Jul | 1000 | EU | HICP (f) |
| 18-Jul | 1000 | EU | Construction Production |
| 18-Jul | 1315 | EU | ECB Deposit/Refi/Marginal Lending Rate |
| 18-Jul | 1345 | EU | ECB Monetary Policy Press Conference |
| 18-Jul | 1515 | EU | ECB's Lagarde presents MonPol decision on podcast |
US TSYS: Tsys Futures Steady Ahead Of Powell Testimony
Jul-09 05:13
- Treasury futures have remained in a very tight trading range today, TU hit a high of 102-09⅛ and now trades at 102-08⅝, while TY hit a high of 110-18 and now trade at session lows at 110-15+.
- Volumes are on the low side this morning: TU 23k, FV 31k, TY 56k
- The cash treasury curve is little changed today, yields are +/- 0.5bp. the 2s10s is +0.597 at -34.842.
- APAC markets: ACGB yields are 0.5-2bps lower, curve bull-flattening. NZGB yields are 1-3bps lower, curve bull-flattening. JGB yields are +/- 2bps as the curve bear-steepens, the BoJ will hold a meeting today and tomorrow to hear from banks, securities firms, and buy-side investors about the planned reduction in bond-buying operations.
- There continues to be talk around Biden being asked to step out of the Presidential race. Kamala Harris was recently the favoured candidate occurring to PredictIt although over the past 24hrs she has dropped 18pts to a 26% chance, while Biden is now at 64% chance of being the nominee, up 23pts.
- Projected rate cut pricing looks steady to fractionally higher by year end vs. early Monday levels (*): July'24 at -6.5% w/ cumulative at -1.6bp at 5.313%, Sep'24 cumulative -20.0bp (-19.4bp), Nov'24 cumulative -31.2bp (-30.1bp), Dec'24 -50.3bp (-49.2bp).
- Looking ahead, NFIB Small Business Optimism and Fed speak from Barr, Powell & Bowman
EURGBP TECHS: Resistance At The 50-Day EMA Remains Intact
Jul-09 05:03
- RES 4: 0.8586 76.4% retracement of the Apr 23 - Jun 14 bear leg
- RES 3: 0.8568 High May 20
- RES 2: 0.8551 1.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 1: 0.8496/99 50-day EMA / High Jul 1
- PRICE: 0.8455 @ 06:02 BST Jul 9
- SUP 1: 0.8431 Low Jun 25
- SUP 2: 0.8397 Low Jun 14 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 0.8388 Low Aug 17 2022
- SUP 4: 0.8366 2.236 proj of the Apr 23 - 30 - May 9 price swing
EURGBP continues to trade below its recent high on Jul 1. A key resistance at 0.8496, the 50-day EMA, remains intact. Clearance of this EMA is required to undermine the current bearish theme and signal scope for a stronger reversal. Gains since Jun 14 appear to be a correction. Initial firm support to watch lies at 0.8431, the Jun 25 low. A break of this support would open 0.8397, the Jun 14 low and the bear trigger.
