UKRAINE: European Nat Sec Advisors Set To Join Ukraine-US Talks Today
Secretary of Ukraine's National Security and Defence Council Rustem Umerov has confirmed that he and his team have held consultations with counterparts from France, Germany and the UK ahead of talks led by White House special envoy Steve Witkoff in Miami, Florida, that will take place later today. Barak Ravid at Axios reported earlier that the Western European national security advisors will be in attendance, in addition to Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and Qatari PM Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al Thani, who have been in Miami for talks with Witkoff on the Gaza ceasefire.
- After the Ukrainian and European delegations leave, Witkoff and President Donald Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner, are expected to hold talks with Russian presidential envoy Kirill Dmitriev over the weekend.
- The inclusion of the European national security advisors comes as something of a change in stance, with the US previously having excluded Ukraine's European allies in favour of bilateral talks with representatives from Kyiv.
- Umerov: "Following the consultations, we will report to President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy. We are acting clearly in line with the priorities defined by the President: Ukraine’s security must be guaranteed reliably and in the long term."
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FOREX: Renewed Bid in USD Works Against Major Pairs; GBPUSD Slips
Renewed bid in the USD works further against the major pairs - pressing EURUSD, GBPUSD and others to new daily lows. Vague back-and-forth for risk sentiment remains the primary driver here, particularly with performance in Mag-7 stocks mirroring that of the S&P ahead of the post-market Nvidia earnings (these historically cross at 2120GMT/1620ET).
- GBP is underperforming on the latest leg, helping EURGBP rise back into positive territory on the day, although still below the earlier highs in turn triggered by political uncertainty. As a result, GBPUSD has narrowed the gap with the bear trigger of 1.3010 - a level that may come under pressure on any further signs of Starmer's support fracturing headed into next Wednesday's Budget (and beyond).
- We noted earlier today the elevated front-end of the GBP vol curve: The GBPUSD vol premium over EURUSD has only traded wider on two occasions since the Truss/Kwarteng budget in 2022: January 2025's GBP sell-off, and the BoE's 50bps rate hike in June 2023. This signals broad currency risk into Reeves' Budget - despite more settled expectations of the tax-and-spend measures.
FOREX: CADJPY Approaching Clustered Resistance Zone
- With the Canadian dollar relatively outperforming its G10 peers on Wednesday, CADJPY has notably extended its most recent break above the years highs, which were located around 110.50.
- Today’s 0.52% advance has resulted in an additional breach of the November 2024 high, with spot rising to a high of 111.82 in recent trade. The move has significantly narrowed the gap to a notable cluster of resistance, with the cross now testing the top of a bull channel, drawn from the April lows.
- Above here, the July 30 2024 high is located at 112.10, which very closely coincides with the 61.8% retracement of the 2024-2025 downleg (shown below). Support for the cross moves up to 109.80, the 20-day EMA.
- We pointed out yesterday that moves have been bolstered by PM Mark Carney securing passage of the first federal budget of his tenure, ensuring the survival of his minority government. Furthermore, the fact that further BOC rate cuts are pretty much out of the question after October data provides a supportive CAD backdrop.
- Canada’s data calendar is relatively light this week, with September retail sales due on Friday.
MNI: US EIA: CRUDE OIL STOCKS EX SPR -3.43M TO 424.2M NOV 14 WK
- US EIA: CRUDE OIL STOCKS EX SPR -3.43M TO 424.2M NOV 14 WK
- US EIA: DISTILLATE STOCKS +0.17M TO 111.1M IN NOV 14 WK
- US EIA: GASOLINE STOCKS +2.33M TO 207.4M IN NOV 14 WK
- US EIA: CUSHING STOCKS -0.7M TO 21.8M BARRELS IN NOV 14 WK
- US EIA: SPR +0.53M TO 410.9M BARRELS IN NOV 14 WK
- US EIA: REFINERY UTILIZATION WEEK CHANGE +0.6% TO 90.0% IN NOV 14 WK
