EUROPEAN INFLATION: MNI Eurozone Inflation Insight – October 2024
Oct-31 16:42
Lack Of Core Progress Fuels Hawkish ECB Repricing
- The October Eurozone flash inflation round saw some reacceleration from cycle lows in September. While an uptick in headline inflation was expected on the back of energy base effects, core inflation also printed above expectations at 2.7% Y/Y (vs 2.6% cons, 2.7% prior).
- Taken alongside a stronger-than-expected Q3 EZ GDP print (0.4% Q/Q vs 0.2% expected by consensus and the ECB), this yielded a hawkish adjustment of ECB implied rates, with spillover from the UK autumn budget exacerbating the move.
- Of course, the ECB’s December macroeconomic projections will also take into account the November inflation round, leaving plenty of scope for further market repricing over the next 6 weeks.
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SECURITY: Iran Launched Missile Attack On Israel, Axios
Oct-01 16:41
Barak Ravid at Axios reporting: "Iran launched a missile attack on Israel, IDF says"
- Comes shortly after ABC News reported: "Iran is expected to launch 240 to 250 missiles in two waves at four targets in Israel... The total number of ballistic missiles is about double the number launched by Iran in April -- 99% of which were intercepted."
- ABC reports that targets are expected to include, "Mossad headquarters and three air bases, according to an Israeli source and a senior U.S. administration official."
- Per the ABC report, "Israel is not expected to launch a preemptive strike, according to the U.S. administration official. It should take the missiles less than 15 minutes to reach targets once launched."
- The official added: "The U.S. and Israel have all defenses activated, and Israel will “absolutely “ retaliate after it happens,"
- News is unfolding of a suspected terrorist attack in Jafa on the outskirts of Tel Aviv. Moshe Schwartz at YWN reports: "Initial info is that two terrorists exited the light rail and opened fire. Numerous casualties are reported, and possibly victims on the train as well. Both terrorists have since been eliminated."
- Confirmation of Iranian or Hezbollah involvement in the terror attack will add to sky-high tensions and could dramatically increase the intensity of an Israeli response.
US TSY OPTIONS: Dec'24 5Y Straddle Buy
Oct-01 16:32
- +4,000 FVZ4 110.25 straddles, 141 ref 110-08.75
US: Biden Urges Ocean Carriers To Negotiate Fair Pay With Portworkers
Oct-01 16:27
US President Joe Biden has issued a statement urging USMX, which represents a group of foreign-owned carriers, "to come to the table and present a fair offer to the workers of the International Longshoremen’s Association." Biden's statement stops short of pledging any executive action to intervene in the port strike, which got underway at midnight last night.
- Biden: "Ocean carriers have made record profits since the pandemic and in some cases profits grew in excess of 800 percent compared to their profits prior to the pandemic. Executive compensation has grown in line with those profits and profits have been returned to shareholders at record rates. It’s only fair that workers, who put themselves at risk during the pandemic to keep ports open, see a meaningful increase in their wages as well."
- Biden: "Now is not the time for ocean carriers to refuse to negotiate a fair wage for these essential workers while raking in record profits. My Administration will be monitoring for any price gouging activity that benefits foreign ocean carriers, including those on the USMX board."
- The Washington Post notes that beyond the obvious economic consequences if the strike is prolonged, "the bigger reason everyone should pay attention is that this is an early battle of well-paid workers against advanced automation. There will be many more to come."
