OIL PRODUCTS: Europe Ramps Up Oil Product Imports From India

Apr-05 13:02

Europe has stepped up imports of Indian oil products since the EU banned imports of Russian products on 5 Feb, Kpler data showed.

  • Europe typically imported an average of 154kbpd of diesel and jet fuel from India. That increased to 200kbpd after 5 Feb.
  • As Europe's ban kept Russian products out, India's diesel exports to the continent rose 12-16% to 150-167kbpd in the last fiscal year, the Kpler and Vortexa data showed. That accounted for about 30% of India's total gasoil exports, up from 21-24% a year earlier.
  • Europe accounted for about 50% of India's jet fuel exports, or around 70-75kbpd in 2022/23, up by 40-42kbpd from the previous year, the data showed.

Historical bullets

US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK, 5s/10Y Ultra Steepener

Mar-06 12:55
  • +5,500 FVM3 106-25.75, post-time offer at 0746:31ET vs.
  • -2,600 UXYM3 117-02, sell-through 117-03 post-time bid

US TSYS: What to Watch: Fed Chair Semi-Annual Policy Testimony; NFP

Mar-06 12:46

Monday's factory orders data a precursor to Fed Chairman Powell's two day, semi-annual testimony to Congress Tue-Wed, US Pres Biden 2024 budget proposal out Thu, Employment read for Feb this Friday. Data at 1000ET:

  • Factory Orders (1.8%, -1.8%); Ex Trans (-1.2%, 1.0%)
  • Durable Goods Orders (-4.5%, -4.5%); Ex Trans (0.7%, 0.7%)
  • Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (0.8%, --); Ship Nondef Ex Air (1.1%, --)

  • US Tsys auctions: $57B 13W, $48B 26W bill auctions at 1130ET
  • Salient events later in the week:
    • Fed Chair Powell semi-annual mon-pol report to Congress, Tue 1000ET
    • Fed Chair Powell report to Congress: House Fncl Srvcs, Wed 1000ET
    • ADP employment data for Feb (106k prior, 200k est), Wed 0815ET
    • NFP employment data for Feb (517k prior, 200k est), Fri 0830ET
    • Central banks: RBA on Tuesday, NOC Wednesday.

ECB: Peak Depo Rate Pricing Hits New Cycle High Above 4.07%

Mar-06 12:45

Following those Holzmann comments eyeing 200bp of further increases (50bp x 4), peak ECB depo rate pricing briefly pushed just above 4.07% for Q4 2023.

  • That marked a new cycle peak, and implies 157bp of hikes from current levels (and no rate cuts in 2023).
  • Peak pricing has since pulled back by 3-4 basis points, but overall: 50bp is basically a lock for March's ECB, with the probability of 50bp (vs 25bp) in May at a little over 70%.
  • A cumulative 125bp of hikes is currently priced through June, with the 143bp through July is 57bp below Holzmann's rate path.