NOK: EURNOK Approaching Key 50-day EMA Resistance, Lots of Data Next Week

• A flurry of separate reports citing various US officials, including the President, keeps focus on the progress of the Iran deal and, in particular, any timings around a conclusion to the Operation.
• PBS quote Trump as saying the Iran War has a good chance of ending: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/trump-tells-pbs-news-that-iran-war-has-a-very-good-chance-of-ending
• Key part of that story is "The president said it's possible a deal could be struck to end the war before his trip to China next week." Trump is headed to Beijing on 14 - 15 May.
• Elsewhere, a CNN reporter tweets "The US & Iran are moving closer to an agreement on a short memorandum ⁠to end the Iran war, a regional source familiar with the negotiations said "The White House received positive feedback from Pakistani mediators on Tuesday that the Iranians were progressing toward a compromise, two administration officials tell me. However, the officials also offered some skepticism regarding the optimism from Pakistan, noting that the Iranians have previously projected that they were close to an agreement — and during heightened tensions of the war — only for talks to fall apart at the last minute".

WSJ reports that, according to a recording it has viewed, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) navy is sending verbal warning to ships not to cross the Strait of Hormuz. WSJ claims the audio message was received by a Greek ship owner: "The message, in English, warned all vessels in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman that any approaching the strait without permission or outside the specified route, “will be targeted.” [...] Iran’s state broadcaster said around 1,500 vessels are currently on their way to cross the Strait of Hormuz, and added that they wouldn't be able to make the voyage without permission from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps navy."

• The latest comments directly from US President Donald Trump from earlier in the day were somewhat vague when it came to the issue of whether the Straits of Hormuz are open or remain closed.
• US Central Command posted a short time ago on X: "Aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush (CVN 77) is among the large contingent of U.S. warships, aircraft, and personnel fully enforcing the U.S. naval blockade against Iran. So far, 52 commercial vessels have been directed to turn around or return to port in order to comply", indicating that from the US military's perspective that the US blockade against Iranian ships and ports remains in place. 

Axios' Barak Ravid via X: 

Israeli Senior Official: The Americans did not surprise us. Prime Minister Netanyahu is in continuous contact with President Trump, and they are holding nearly daily conversations. There is a direct connection between the Prime Minister's people and the President's people

Israeli Senior Official: It was made clear to us from the conversations that President Trump stands firm on his red lines, and foremost among them is the removal of nuclear material from Iran

Israeli Senior Official: The Prime Minister has instructed the IDF to be prepared for any scenario, including a return to combat if necessary