HUF: EURHUF Probing Recent Cycle Lows Amid More Stable Equity Backdrop

EURHUF weakness has been unfazed by the bounce in US yields following the US ISM data (notably, the prices paid sub component rose to a 3-year high), with spot continuing to probe Monday’s 18-month low. That low coincides with the 1.236 projection level of the Jan 7 - Mar 21 - Apr 14 price swing, at 386.70. A clear break here would turn attention to the 1.382 projection at 383.84.

• The more stable risk backdrop on Wednesday has benefited higher beta EM currencies, with the forint outperforming its CE3 peers – PLNHUF and CZKHUF have each fallen 0.2-0.3%, reaching fresh cycle lows – and the likes of ZAR and MXN are also performing well on the session.
• Commenting on the forint, ING argue that the correlation between rates and FX has weakened and that market bets on rate cuts may not necessarily mean a weaker HUF later on. They predict a EURHUF range of 385–395 in 2026, with peaks around the spring general election and in autumn, when the possibility of an easing cycle emerges.