HUF: EURHUF Extends Weekly Gain to 0.5%, Focus Turns to CPI Next Week
EURHUF has risen 0.2% on Friday, bringing this week’s total gain to 0.5%. Spot trades just shy of the 50-day EMA at 385.90 at typing but owing to the solid pullback for the cross over the Christmas/New Year period, price remains some way below the post-NBH highs at around 391-392. A resumption of weakness would turn focus to key support and bear trigger at 380.25, the Dec 3 low.
- Given the notable dovish shift in tone from the NBH in December, next week’s inflation reading will be closely watched. The headline figure is expected to moderate substantially to around +3.2% Y/Y from +3.8% in November as strong and favourable base effects kick in. Inflation is expected to decline further to below the 3% target in the early months of 2026 before rising again thereafter.
- The central bank highlighted repricing effects at the start of the year as a crucial factor, increasing the significance of the January inflation print (Feb 12) and therefore the February rate-setting meeting (Feb 24). Accordingly, sell-side have started to coalesce around the idea of a Q1 rate cut.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
EQUITIES: Modest Weakness In ES1 Doesn't Look Headline Driven
A quick 0.3% pullback in US equity futures is noted, but Emini is already moving away from those session lows. There wasn't an obvious headline trigger for the move, and weak volumes behind the selloff supports the view that it wasn't news-related (see chart).
Our technical analyst notes that initial support in Eminis is 6807.02, the 20-day EMA. A bull cycle remains intact.
FIgure 1: ESA Index Price and Volume (Source Bloomberg Finance L.P)
Separately, the WSJ reports that "U.S. manufacturers are pulling back harder on orders of parts and raw materials because of rising uncertainty around the future of the Trump administration's signature tariffs, a new survey shows".
SOFR OPTIONS: 2QH6 97.375/97.750 Call Spread Lifted
Latest block trade lodged at 10:12:24 London/05:12:24 NY:
- 2QH6 97.375/97.750 call spread 2.5K blocked at 1.0, CME email points to a buyer of the call spread.
FOREX: FX OPTION EXPIRY - Large in the EUR Tomorrow
- Large expiry in the EUR Tomorrow. If you are bullish Cable, a big one next Tuesday (all calls).
Of note:
EURUSD ~1bn at 1.1610.
USDCNY 1.2bn at 7.1088.
EURUSD 7.04bn at 1.1595/1.1610 (thu).
USDJPY: 2.57bn at 156.00 (thu).
GBPUSD 3.52bn at 1.3500 (tue).
- EURUSD: 1.1610 (912mln).
- GBPUSD: 1.3300 (539mln).
- USDJPY: 156.00 (900mln).
- USDCAD: 1.3800 (520mln).
- AUDUSD: 0.6600 (819mln).
- NZDUSD: 0.5800 (475mln).
- USDCNY: 7.1088 (1.2bn).
- USDZAR: 16.900 (625mln).
