CHF: EURCHF Rises to 0.9130, Extends Break of 20-day EMA
- The most recent advance for EURCHF extended throughout the SNB press conference, as Governor Schlegel gave no clues on whether intervention has taken place to curb franc strength, but reiterated the central bank’s increased readiness to act. Schlegel also made multiple references to the upcoming quarterly data in early June, clearly not wanting to show the SNB’s hand at this juncture.
- We flagged yesterday that EURCHF had broken above its 20-day EMA for the first time since mid-January, and this may have exacerbated the squeeze higher this morning. The 50-day EMA intersects at 0.9140.
- Alongside this dynamic, an erroneous headline from Bloomberg that stated a higher likelihood to use negative rates may have impacted short-term price action. This was later corrected to properly reflect the reiteration that such a move would require a “higher threshold” than a more conventional rate reduction.
- ING note that with rates already at zero and low appetite to bring them back to negative, and crucially, the US Treasury’s eyes on the size of interventions, only a de-escalation can realistically prevent more build-up of EUR/CHF pressure. ING are tentatively looking for some stabilisation in the pair and a potential floor at 0.900, but risks remain on the downside in the near term.
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FOREX: GBP Dips to 1.3552 Following Jobs Data, Before Recovering
- A set of softer-than-expected jobs data weighed on GBP early Tuesday, with GBPUSD having a sharp move from around 1.3610 to session lows of 1.3552. Spot has subsequently bounced back to 1.36 as we approach the NY crossover.
- GBPUSD's dip is deemed corrective at this juncture, with moving average studies continuing to highlight a dominant uptrend, and only a break of the 50-day EMA at 1.3531 would undermine the bull theme. Tomorrow's UK CPI print will also be very influential in driving short-term sentiment.
- The Japanese yen is the best performer across the G10 Tuesday, steadily reversing yesterday’s post GDP price action as a sources piece pointed away from a March hike and the softer risk sentiment across global markets also weighs at the margin.
- USDJPY has slipped back below 153.00 in sympathy and lows at 152.60/37/27 look like potential acceleration points ahead of the 152.10 yearly lows. Elsewhere, a lack of renewed optimism for the Euro has been weighing on EURJPY, prompting fresh two-month lows below 181.00 this morning, meaning the cross is testing key support at 181.22.
- The next key event for JPY may be PM Takaichi's general policy speech on Friday, which is reported to include a multi-year special budget for investment into growth initiatives and crisis management.
- NZD is slightly stronger ahead of Wednesday’s RBNZ decision, the first for newly appointed Governor Breman. Any hawkish lean would place the 0.6093 NZDUSD cycle highs back in focus.
- Fed's Barr and Daly will be interesting to watch as they speak on AI today. ECB's Escriva and Makhlouf are also scheduled to appear. In terms of data, Canada CPI for January takes focus, while Japanese trade data is scheduled overnight ahead of the RBNZ.
BONDS: 10-year Gilt/Bund Narrows Following UK Jobs Data, Curves Bull Flatten
The 10-year Gilt/Bund spread has narrowed 2bps to 162.5bps, with UK paper outperforming German counterparts following this morning’s UK labour market data. Although wage pressures were broadly in line with consensus, the quantities side of the labour market continues to soften.
- 10-year Gilt yields are now down 4bps today at 4.359%, having pierced trendline support drawn from the November 2022 lows. Next support is the Jan 14 low at 4.336%
- Bund yields are down 2.2bps to 2.73%, taking cues from overnight moves in USTs and JGBs rather than any regional driver. The February German ZEW survey saw a weaker than expected expectations component (58.3 vs 65.2 cons, 59.6 prior), but this wasn’t a market mover.
- Both the UK and German curves have bull flattened on the session.
- In futures, Gilts are +38 ticks at 92.30. Initial resistance is the Jan 19 high at 92.51. Bund futures are +19 ticks at 129.39, with key resistance noted at the Nov 26 high of 129.55.
- 10-year EGB spreads to Bunds are within 0.5bps of yesterday’s closing levels. No material underperformance in RAGBs on reports that Austria is set to activate its National Escape Clause for defence spending.
- The UK is holding two tenders today, while Germany and Finland are holding conventional auctions in the EGB space. Croatia is holding a syndication for a new 10-year benchmark.
COMMODITIES: WTI Futures Test 20-Day EMA Support Again, Bull Cycle Intact
A bull cycle in WTI futures remains intact. However, the move lower from the Jan 29 high continues to highlight a corrective phase. Attention is on support at the 20-day EMA, at $62.61 (pierced). The 50-day EMA lies at $60.95. A clear breach of the 50-day average would highlight a stronger reversal and open $58.53, the Jan 20 low. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at $66.48, the Jan 30 high. Clearance of it would resume the uptrend. Recent gains in Gold highlight a retracement of the Jan 29 - Feb 2 sell-off. The next two resistance points to monitor are $5139.9 and $5314.0, Fibonacci retracement levels. Note that the sell from the Jan 29 high continues to highlight a potential top in the L/T trend and from a S/T perspective, an unwinding of the recent overbought condition. A resumption of bearish activity would refocus attention on $4403.0, Feb 2 low.
- WTI Crude up $0.6 or +0.95% at $63.45
- Natural Gas down $0.13 or -4.04% at $3.108
- Gold spot down $56.63 or -1.13% at $4936.21
- Copper down $8.3 or -1.42% at $577.7
- Silver down $1.67 or -2.18% at $74.9726
- Platinum down $36.71 or -1.8% at $2008.48
