EMISSIONS: EUAs Pullback On 2026 Inflation Forecasts Revision
Jun-05 12:37
Slight pullback in EUAs for 25/26 with a higher-than expected downward revision in 2026 inflation forecasts, while ECB rate cut was expected.
- The ECB cuts its policy rates 25bps including the deposit rate to 2.00% as unanimously expected.
- We judge the small initial rally in rates to be from the economic projections, which as shown above saw a sizeable miss of analyst expectations for HICP inflation in 2026 (0.2pps lower than the median we’d seen of 1.8% after the 1.9% from March).
- EUA DEC 25 up 0.4% at 72.9 EUR/t CO2e
- EUA DEC 26 up 0.5% at 74.82 EUR/t CO2e
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US TSYS: Post-Trade Balance React
May-06 12:35
- Treasury futures still mixed but holding near recent highs after March Trade Gap widens to to record $140.5B.
- Tsy Jun'25 10Y futures currently +3 at 111-05 vs. 111-05.5 high (10Y yld at 4.3355%), initial technical resistance well above at 112-01.5 (High May 2).
- For bulls, price needs to trade above key short-term resistance at 112-20+, the May 1 high, to reinstate a bullish theme.
- Cross asset: BBG US$ index near recent low at 1219.75 (-1.02); stocks weaker: S&P eminis -50.75 at 5621.0.
CANADA MAR EXPORTS TO U.S. -6.6%, MOST SINCE APRIL 2020
May-06 12:30
- CANADA MAR EXPORTS TO U.S. -6.6%, MOST SINCE APRIL 2020
- CANADA TRADE BALANCE WITH U.S. +CAD8.4B AFTER +CAD10.8B IN FEB
- CANADA TRADE SURPLUS WITH U.S. DOWN FROM JAN RECORD +CAD13.8B
- CANADA GLOBAL MAR TRADE BAL -CAD0.5B, PRIOR -CAD1.4B
MNI: CANADIAN MAR TRADE BALANCE CAD -0.5 BILLION
May-06 12:30
- MNI: CANADIAN MAR TRADE BALANCE CAD -0.5 BILLION
- CANADA MAR EXPORTS CAD 69.9 BLN, IMPORTS CAD 70.4 BLN
- CANADA REVISED FEB MERCHANDISE TRADE BALANCE CAD -1.4 BLN
