US-EU: EU Trade Committee Votes To Advance 'Turnberry Agreement'

A second round of indirect nuclear talks between the US and Iran is underway in Switzerland. Reuters reports that a senior Iranian official said ahead of talks, “the key to sustaining effective talks is US seriousness on lifting sanctions and avoiding unrealistic demands.”

• The official adds that Iran’s approach to talks with the US is "positive and serious", but it has no preconceptions about the outcome. The official echoes yesterday's statement from Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, saying “Iran is in Geneva with genuine, constructive proposals,” but appearing to manage expectations of a breakthrough.
• The comments suggest Tehran is maintaining a hardline posture going into talks, likely assessing the US is wary of committing to a military operation, despite the large-scale mobilisation of defensive assets to the region. The comments indicate Tehran is unlikely to offer flexibility on US demands to expand talks to cover the range of Iran’s ballistic missile programme and its support for regional proxy groups.
• The prevailing view amongst analysts is that the talks are unlikely to make any substantive breakthroughs. Public comments suggest that Iran is primarily focused on the parameters of talks, rather than the details of a new nuclear deal.  
• Hamidreza Azizi at Berlin-based SWP think tank notes on Substack that the early February re-emergence of Ali Shamkahni at the highest level of Iran’s military suggests a more combative negotiating position from Iran.
• Azizi writes, “Shamkhani [argued talks] should remain strictly confined to the nuclear file, and even there Iran would not agree to transfer highly enriched uranium abroad. Appearing in military uniform for the first time in years, he also emphasized Iran’s readiness for war should diplomacy fail.”

Of note:

USDCAD 2.09bn at 1.3600/1.3625.

EURUSD 1.22bn at 1.1900 (a bit too far).

USDCAD 1.4bn at 1.3600 (wed).

EURUSD 3.45bn at 1.1790/1.1800 (thu).

USDJPY 2.73bn at 153.00 (thu).

• EURUSD: 1.1800 (242mln), 1.1810 (242mln), 1.1825 (281mln), 1.1830 (349mln), 1.1850 (614mln), 1.1900 (1.22bn).
• GBPUSD: 1.3560 (317mln), 1.3595 (260mln).
• USDJPY: 152.50 (717mln), 153.00 (492mln).
• USDCAD: 1.3600 (1.11bn), 1.3625 (981mln), 1.3650 (350mln).
• AUDUSD: 0.7025 (429mln).
• AUDNZD: 1.1700 (252mln).

European Council President António Costa will visit Oslo for talks with PM Jonas Gahr Støre on Thursday, 19 Feb. Following the talks, the two will hold a presser at 13:15CET (07:15ET, 12:15GMT). These talks come amid speculation regarding the prospect of closer ties developing between Norway and the EU, given US President Donald Trump's focus on security in the High North. Norway has previously rejected EU membership in a referendum. 

• Trump's belligerent stance towards demanding US territorial command of Greenland has raised concerns in NATO member states that the US is no longer a reliable partner. Trump's comments disparaging the Article 5 collective defence clause and raising doubts about the reliability of NATO allies have only reinforced these concerns.
• Daniel Hegedüs of The German Marshall Fund of the United States think-tank in Berlin notes in Norway "a shift away from predominantly domestic considerations toward arguments framing the EU as an existential geopolitical and security anchor..."
• Security experts have increasingly warned that Norway's Arctic archipelago of Svalbard is a key vulnerability. Governed by a unique treaty from WWI, there have been Russian settlements on the islands for over a century. However, as noted in The Spectator, it could play a key geostrategic role for Moscow: "Svalbard controls the Bear Gap, the chokepoint that Russian submarines must cross to reach the Atlantic. It is the gateway to Russia’s submarine bases on the Kola Peninsula, and in a war could be critical for protecting its nuclear deterrent."
• While the Labour gov't has not signalled any intent to alter its stance on the EU, the opposition pro-EU Conservatives under new leader Ine Eriksen Søreide are looking to re-open the debate.