REFINING: EU Refinery Maintenance Update

Jan-11 08:59

The latest update on the European refinery maintenance schedule.

  • In Germany, Bayernoil’s Vohburg refinery halted the 40kbpd VDU on 7 January according to WoodMac. The 60kbpd (Topping 2) remained offline since 10 October.
  • Bayernoil’s Neustadt refinery shut the hydrogen plant on 1 January. The 40kbpd visbreaker remained shut since 6 October according to WoodMac.
  • In France, TotalEnergies reported the trip of a unit at the Gonfreville Normandy oil refinery on Jan 9 according to a community alert. The unit was not specified.
  • Total’s Feyzin refinery shut the CDU and VDU in an unplanned outage on 20 December according to Bloomberg. Works are scheduled to last until 16 February, affecting 109kbpd.
  • Exxon Mobil’s Fos Sur Mer refinery is planning a major turnaround in early 2024, ESSO SAF CEO said previously. Bloomberg estimates works to take place between 20 January and 31 March. The unit had a flaring event on 5 January according to a community alert. The unit was restarted as of 8 January according to WoodMac.
  • TotalEnergies reported the halt of units at its La Mede biofuels plant on 1 January according to a community alert.
  • In the UK, Total’s Fina Lindsey refinery is scheduled to undergo planned maintenance starting 16 January until 13 March according to Bloomberg. The 56kbpd visbreaker was shut on 4 January but increased activity was observed as of 10 January.
  • Essar’s Stanlowe refinery is scheduled to start planned maintenance for six weeks on 1 February at a crude and hydrogen tie-in unit according to Bloomberg.
  • Ineo’s Grangemouth refinery’s VDU and hydrocracker remained offline since early April.
  • In Belgium, TotalEnergies restarted the 74kbpd FCC on 2 January that was shut on 7 August due to a fire according to WoodMac. TotalEnergies is looking to postpone planned work on a gasoline producing unit next year at its Antwerp refinery according to Bloomberg sources. The unit is currently undergoing unplanned maintenance. The larger of the two FCCs - offline since August following a fault - is scheduled to have a new reactor installed in October 2024 but that is possibly now moved to 2025 the source said.
  • In the Netherlands, the 83kbpd VDU at BP’s Rotterdam refinery remains halted since 11 April to Bloomberg.
  • In Italy, Eni’s Agib Taranto refinery is planning works at the residual hydrocracker from 14 February. Works could result in a full halt, people familiar with the operations told Bloomberg.
  • GOI Energy’s Priolo refinery (former Lukoil’s ISAB refiner) saw decreased activity and brief elevated flaring observed at the 40kbpd FCC on 10 January. The unit began using an alternative stack, historically associated with unit upsets and maintenance according to WoodMac.
  • Sonatrach’s Augusta refinery shut the 70kbpd VDU on 5 January according to WoodMac.
  • In Spain, Repsol’s Bilbao refinery shut a cogeneration unit on 2 January, reported that unspecified maintenance is occurring according to WoodMac.
  • In Croatia, the INA Rijeka refinery has planned works until 29 February affecting 90kbpd. The unit halted on 14 December according to Bloomberg.
  • In Poland, PKN Orlen’s Gdansk refinery shut the 45kbpd hydrocracker on 3 January according to WoodMac.

Historical bullets

GILTS: Wings Lag During AHE-Driven Rally, Markets Essentially Price June ’24 BoE Cut

Dec-12 08:56

As flagged elsewhere, the softer-than-consensus AHE data has supported gilts early on Tuesday, with the overnight core global FI impetus (largely derived from Tsys & JGBs) also helping.

  • That allowed futures to show as high as 98.78 in recent trade, adding over 120 ticks vs. settlement
  • Last Friday’s opening gap lower in the contract was closed in the process. The Dec 6 high (98.97) is now eyed.
  • Gilts yields run 9.5-11.5bp lower on the day, with the wings lagging.
  • 10-Year yields have moved to 3.95%. Last week’s low at 3.941% (98.84 in futures today) and 3.90% (99.22 in futures today) present the immediate reference points on that front.
  • SONIA futures remain underpinned post-data, last showing 0.5-14.5bp firmer.
  • Meanwhile, BoE-dated OIS has seen an extension of the early dovish move, last showing little changed to 12bp softer through ’24 MPC contracts.
  • Markets are once again essentially fully pricing a 25bp cut come the end of the June MPC.
  • GBP3.75bn of 4.50% Jun-28 gilt supply is due today.
  • Looking further ahead, tomorrow’s run of monthly economic activity data provides the last meaningful pre-BoE data input, but that shouldn’t move the needle too much for policymakers, at least when it comes to Thursday's decision.

GILTS: 10yr Yield looking to test support

Dec-12 08:50
  • UK Yields have gapped lower as futures spiked on the open, following the UK data miss.
  • Looking at the 10yr Yield it printed a 3.941% low last week with a 98.97 high in futures.

Today reference 98.43:

  • 3.941% = 98.84.
  • 3.900% = 99.22.

EQUITIES: US and EU Option expiry Friday

Dec-12 08:49

Equity Option expiry for Friday in notional terms have increased:

US:

  • SPX: 2.79T vs 2.73T (Yesterday).
  • NDX: 95.79bn vs 94.18bn.
  • Apple: 26.25bn vs 25.28bn.
  • Amazon: 10.92bn vs 10.0bn.

EU:

  • SX5E : 420.76bn vs 417.9bn.
  • SX7E: 20.06bn vs 20.07bn.
  • DAX: 53.75bn vs 53.4bn.
  • CAC: 4.14bn vs 4.14bn.
  • FTSE: 50.09bn vs 50.3bn.