POWER: EU Mid-Day Power Summary: EU Power Curve in Turns Green as TTF Flips
EU front-month futures are trading in green amid a reversal in TTF prices from the morning session amid Trump suggesting Iran has repeatedly violated the ceasefire, with Norway outages also lending supping. The Nordic front month remains higher on a drier outlook and below seasonal temperatures.
- Nordic Base Power MAY 26 up 1.7% at 52.35 EUR/MWh
- France Base Power MAY 26 up 0.5% at 23.38 EUR/MWh
- Germany Base Power MAY 26 up 0.5% at 77.06 EUR/MWh
- EUA DEC 26 down 1.7% at 74.86 EUR/MT
- TTF Gas MAY 26 up 1.3% at 40.8 EUR/MWh
- TTF traded softer earlier in the session before reversing into positive territory, supported by outages in Norway, revised lower temperature forecasts, and additional geopolitical support after Trump’s comments suggesting Iran has repeatedly violated the ceasefire
- EUAs Dec26 are trending lower, diverging from EU equities, as markets reassess the prospects of US-Iran peace talks.
- A revised draft of the AccelerateEU plan suggests the EU will set out various measures for governments to provide immediate relief to soaring energy prices amid the Iran war.
- The EU is expected to communicate the AccelerateEU plan on Wednesday, 22 April, outlining measures aimed at preventing a renewed energy crisis.
- The EIB and Commerzbank have launched a new cooperation agreement to finance €2bn for electricity grid investments across Germany and the EU.
- French hydropower reserves last week – calendar week 15 – increased by two percentage points to 26.7% of capacity, narrowing the deficit to the five-year and year-on-year averages.
- France’s Engie has advanced its outright power hedges for its Belgian and French power production over 2026-28, with achieved prices dropping for all years.
- Italy’s dependence on imported gas for electricity and heating—covering around 40% of peak power generation and contributing to about 15% of electricity imports—has left it more exposed to energy price shocks than many EU peers.
- Volodymyr Zelenskyy has signed a law formalising Ukraine’s integration into the EU power market, establishing a legal framework for market coupling and closer alignment with European energy systemsSerbia will increase gas imports from Azerbaijan’s Socar to supply a planned 500MW gas-fired power plant, which is anticipated to be completed in 2030.
- The UK outlined plans Tuesday to weaken the linkage between electricity prices and gas benchmarks, aiming to lower end-user costs, the government said. The update clarifies the type of fixed-price contracts referenced in the earlier announcement.
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USDCAD TECHS: Key Resistance Remains Intact For Now
- RES 4: 1.3845 High Jan 22
- RES 3: 1.3800 High Jan 23
- RES 2: 1.3753 High Mar 03 and key resistance
- RES 1: 1.3748 High Mar 19
- PRICE: 1.3714 @ 17:00 GMT Mar 20
- SUP 1: 1.3670/3526 20-day EMA / Low Mar 09
- SUP 2: 1.3482 Low Jan 30 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 1.3420 Low Sep 25 ‘24
- SUP 4: 1.3400 50.0% retracement of the 2021 - 2025 uptrend
Attention in USDCAD is on key near-term resistance and a bull trigger at 1.3753, the Mar 3 high. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a range breakout, highlight a stronger bull cycle and confirm a clear breach of the 20- and 50-day EMAs. This would open 1.3800 initially, the Jan 23 high. For bears, a reversal would refocus attention on 1.3482, the Jan 30 low and bear trigger.
AUDUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 0.7284 High Jun’22
- RES 3: 0.7256 2.500 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 10 - 18 price swing
- RES 2: 0.7208 61.8% of the Feb 25 ‘21 - Apr 9 ‘25 bear leg
- RES 1: 0.7187 High Mar 11 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 0.7039 @ 16:59 GMT Mar 20
- SUP 1: 0.6979 50-day EMA and key support
- SUP 2: 0.6944 Low Mar 3
- SUP 3: 0.6897 Low Feb 6
- SUP 4: 0.6834 Low Jan 23
The trend condition in AUDUSD is unchanged, it remains bullish and the pair continues to trade above key support at 0.6979, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would undermine the current bullish theme. The moving average set-up is in a bull mode position and this continues to highlight a dominant medium-term uptrend. A resumption of the trend would open 0.7208 next, a Fibonacci retracement point.
BOE: Summary of Analyst Views
- Just over half (11/21) of the analyst reviews that we have read still look for the next move from the MPC to be a cut. 4/21 look for a hike while 6/21 look for the Bank to remain on hold for their forecast horizon.
- In terms of those expecting hikes Daiwa, JP Morgan and Rabobank all look for the first hike in April with the former two looking for a 4.25% peak and Rabobank looking for a one-and-done. NatWest Markets look for the first hike in Q4-26 but then expect two further hikes in Spring 2027 to the highest peak of 4.50% seen in any analyst base case that we have seen.
- Note that of these analysts, 3/4 (all except NatWest Markets) expect cuts back to a least current levels within their forecast horizon.
- In terms of those looking for the next move to be a cut, none look for a move in April with 5 analysts expecting a June cut, 1 for July, 2 for November and the remaining 3 looking for cuts to begin in 2027.
- UniCredit has the lowest terminal rate, continuing to look for 2.75% while 4/21 analysts look for 3.00% terminal, 6/21 analysts look for 3.25% and 1/21 analyst looks for 3.50%. As noted above, NatWest Markets looks for hikes with no reversal but the remaining 8/21 analysts look for no moves from 3.75% throughout the forecast horizon.
