EMISSIONS: EU Mid-Day Carbon Summary: EUAs/UKAs Rise On Mixed Influences

EUAs Dec25 are trending higher, supported by gains in EU gas and equities. UKAs Dec25 are rising following reports that EU member states have agreed to begin talks with the UK on linking the EU and UK ETS.

• EUA DEC 25 up 1.69% at 82.01 EUR/t CO2e
• UKA DEC 25 up 0.98% at 57.56 GBP/t CO2e
• TTF Gas DEC 25 up 0.6% at 31.275 EUR/MWh
• NBP Gas DEC 25 up 1.2% at 82.06 GBp/therm
• Estoxx 50 up 1.2% at 5793.09
• FTSE 100 DEC 25 down 0.3% at 9912.5
• Intraday correlation between EUA/TTF near noon at 0.40
• Intraday correlation between EUA/UKA near noon at 0.60
• EUA POSITIONING – Investment funds increased net long positions in EU ETS futures on the ICE exchange for the second consecutive week, while remaining at the highest since early May 2021, according to the latest CoT data as of 7 November.
• UKA POSITIONING – Investment funds cut their net long positions in UK ETS futures on the ICE exchange as of 7 November to the lowest level since mid-September, according to the latest COT data.
• UKAs Dec25 rebounded by 0.75% from intraday low, immediately after the EU member states were reported to agree to start EU-UK ETS link talk with the UK. EUAs Dec25 were up by 0.72% during the same period.
• Although no further details were provided at the time of writing, the statement suggests that both parties remain committed.
• The House of Lords European Affairs Committee in the UK Parliament confirmed that there’s currently no existing timetable for EU-UK ETS linkage, according to its latest report.
• The EU Commission is planning to expand EU CBAM to pre-consumer scrap for aluminium and steel products from January 2026, reported by SMM.
• Scottish Government urged the UK Government to secure an EU CBAM exemption deal or mitigations that can be put in place from Jan 2026, according to its latest position paper.
• Germany maintains national ETS price corridor between €55-65/tCO2e in 2027, after the EU ETS 2 was delayed one-year to 2028, according to WirtschaftsWoche.
• Eric Usher, Head of UNEP FI, highlighted that the outcome of COP30 on the global carbon market, Article 6.4, could offer financial institutions new key opportunities.