EMISSIONS: EU Mid-Day Carbon Summary: EUAs/UKAs Rise On EU Gas, Equities Gains 

Speaking at a meeting of Nordic 5 (N5) foreign ministers in Helsinki, Finnish Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen claims that the 'coalition of the willing' has begun preparations on the prospect of deploying peacekeeping troops to Ukraine in the event of a peace deal, but that no decisions have been made yet. Valtonen spoke alongside the foreign ministers of Norway, Denmark, Iceland and Sweden, as well as invited Canadian Foreign Minister Anita Anand. 

• Valtonen adds that "We have not seen anything from Russia yet [to indicate] that they would be ready to be involved in a true peace process for Ukraine." Valtonen: "We welcome the possibility of finding a peace solution in Ukraine, but experience has shown it doesn't happen quickly."
• Canada's Anand: "There is an opportunity to end Russia's illegal war in Ukraine [but] we have been discussing stable security guarantees since at least 2023. Security guarantees are one piece [of the puzzle], but let's not forget the [importance of] aid given to Ukraine."
• Swedish and Danish FMs both made positive noises on participation in security guarantees without offering further details. 

Some of the N5 nations have proved the most significant financial and military backers of Ukraine. Indeed, Denmark, Sweden and Norway jointly contributed USD500mln to the Prioritised Ukraine Requirements List (PURL) scheme. This sees Ukraine inform European NATO countries of what weaponry it needs. Those countries then check with the US what stockpiles they have. The European countries then pay the US for the weapons in USD500mln packages, and then ship them to Ukraine.

• On the commodity front, a bull cycle in Gold remains intact and this is highlighted by moving average studies that remain in a bull-mode position. The sideways trend that has been in place since the Apr peak appears to be a corrective phase - a pause in the uptrend. A resumption of gains would open $3439.0, the Aug 23 high. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at $3500.1, the Apr 22 low. On the downside, first support to watch lies at $3268.2, the Jul 30 low.
• In the oil space, WTI futures remain in a clear bear cycle and the contract is trading closer to its recent lows. A key support at $61.99, the Jun 30 low, has been breached, strengthening a bearish theme. A continuation lower would open $57.71, the May 30 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $69.36, the Jul 30 high. Clearance of this level would cancel a bear theme. Initial resistance to watch is $64.00, the 50-day EMA.

• Treasuries are mildly firmer, gaining through London hours, but with relatively little net reaction to yesterday’s meetings between Trump, Zelenskyy and EU leaders.
• The most important outcome of the talks from the perspective of Ukraine and its European allies will be the pledge from Trump on security guarantees for Kyiv. Trump instructed Secretary of State Marco Rubio to begin work on establishing what these will look like.
• Today sees housing data, a dovish Bowman and then scheduled White House/Trump comments from 1300ET.
• Cash yields are 0.3-1.0bp lower on the day.
• 5s30s at 108.4bps continues to hold close to yesterday’s fresh ytd high of 109.6bps as the year’s steepening theme clearly holds (40bps on Dec 31).
• TYU5 trades at 111-19+ (+03) on thin cumulative volumes of 215k.
• Support is being monitored after yesterday’s low of 111-13+ came close to the 50-day EMA of 111-10+. A push lower could then open 110-23+ (Aug 1 low). To the upside sits resistance at 112-15+ (Aug 5 high) having hit 112-14 prior to Thursday's strong PPI report.
• Data: Housing starts/building permits Jul/Jul prelim (0830ET)
• Fedspeak: Bowman on BBG TV (1000ET), Bowman at Blockchain Symposium (1410ET, text only) – see STIR bullet
• Bill issuance: US Tsy $85B 6W bill auction (1130ET)
• Politics: White House Press Sec Leavitt briefing (1300ET), President Trump signs a Congressional Bill (1300ET)