NATGAS: EU Gas Demand Could Slow With TTF Above Coal-Switching Price
Feb-05 15:17
European gas consumption may start to slow under governmental and societal pressure to limit cost increases with regional gas prices above the price of coal-fired generation, said Gavin Maguire at Reuters.
- Some gas fired output could be cut in favour of coal-fired generation, especially in Germany and Poland which hold a larger coal generation share.
- In January, gas-fired output in Germany, the UK, the Netherlands and Poland all increased by over 10% y/y to the highest for that month since at least 2022, LSEG data showed.
- Gas prices have been consistently above the coal-switching price since August 2024 while the current TTF forward curve shows this remains the case until well into 2026.
- The TTF curve shows a TTF premium to the coal switching price averaging around €14.70/MWh in 2025, LSEG shows.
- Any rise in coal-fired output will undermine efforts to reduce regional emissions.
Source: Reuters
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