EMISSIONS: EU End-Of-Day Carbon Summary: EUAs/UKAs Rise On Mixed Influences
Nov-12 16:12
EUAs Dec25 are trending higher, nearing a nine-month high, supported by gains in EU equities on strong earnings. UKAs Dec25 are rising following reports that EU member states have agreed to begin talks with the UK on linking the EU and UK ETS.
- EUA DEC 25 up 1.55% at 81.9 EUR/t CO2e
- UKA DEC 25 up 0.98% at 57.56 GBP/t CO2e
- TTF Gas DEC 25 down 0.5% at 30.945 EUR/MWh
- NBP Gas DEC 25 up 0.3% at 81.31 GBp/therm
- Estoxx 50 up 1.1% at 5786.43
- The latest bi-weekly Poland ETS CAP3 auction cleared at €81.51/ton CO2e, up 3.77% compared with the previous bi-weekly Poland auction at €78.55/ton CO2e according to EEX.
- UKA ICE auction cleared at £57.10/ton CO2e, compared with £55.50/ton CO2e in the previous auction on 29 Oct, according to ICE.
- EUA POSITIONING – Investment funds increased net long positions in EU ETS futures on the ICE exchange for the second consecutive week, while remaining at the highest since early May 2021, according to the latest CoT data as of 7 November.
- UKA POSITIONING – Investment funds cut their net long positions in UK ETS futures on the ICE exchange as of 7 November to the lowest level since mid-September, according to the latest COT data.
- A medium-term uptrend in ICE EUA futures remains intact and this week’s gains reinforce bullish conditions. The contract is approaching the short-term bull trigger at €84.50, the Nov 4 high. A break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open €84.50, the Jan 30 high and a key resistance. On the downside, support to watch lies at €77.82, the 50-day EMA.
- UKAs Dec25 rebounded by 0.75% from intraday low, immediately after the EU member states were reported to agree to start EU-UK ETS link talk with the UK. EUAs Dec25 were up by 0.72% during the same period.
- Although no further details were provided at the time of writing, the statement suggests that both parties remain committed.
- The House of Lords European Affairs Committee in the UK Parliament confirmed that there’s currently no existing timetable for EU-UK ETS linkage, according to its latest report.
- An IETA survey showed that 56% of 143 respondents expect the EU and UK ETS to link between 2026-2030, according to its latest report.
- TTF front month fallen towards the low end of its recent range despite a cooler weather forecast next week amid rising import supplies and signs of LNG market oversupply.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
LOOK AHEAD: Tuesday Data Calendar: Fed Speak Focus on Chairman Powell's Outlook
Oct-13 16:07
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 10/14 0600 NFIB Small Business Optimism (100.8, 100.6)
- 10/14 0845 Fed VC Bowman moderated discussion ay IIF (no text)
- 10/14 1130 US Tsy $86B 13W & $77B 26W bill auctions
- 10/14 1220 Fed Chair Powell economic outlook MANE meeting (text, Q&A)
- 10/14 1300 US Tsy $95B 6W bill auction
- 10/14 1525 Fed Gov Waller, payments panel at IIF (no text, Q&A)
- 10/14 1530 Boston Fed Collins moderated discussion (text, Q&A)
- Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI
JAPAN: Oppo. Parties To Meet 14 Oct; Komeito May Back Non-LDP PM Candidate
Oct-13 15:42
The secretaries-general of the three main opposition parties: the liberal Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), the libertarian federalist Japan Innovation Party (Ishin), and the conservative populist Democratic Party for the People (DPFP), are due to hold talks on 14 Oct regarding the prospect of an alliance to elect a new PM. There remains the prospect that the three parties could look to unite and present a joint prime ministerial candidate in the National Diet session (likely 20/21 Oct), where a successor to the outgoing PM, Shigeru Ishiba, will be elected.
- The Komeito party announced in early October that it would not back new Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) president Sanae Takaichi’s bid to become PM, raising the prospect of the opposition ousting the LDP for the first time since 2012.
- After the SG-level meeting on 14 Oct, the leaders of the CDP, Ishin and DPFP could meet on 15 Oct.
- In a potential boost to the opposition's chances, Tetsuo Saito, leader of the centrist Komeito party, has reversed his previous stance and said that voting for an opposition candidate for PM was "one of the possibilities" in a run-off election in the Diet.
- Despite dissolving the governing coalition with the LDP last week, Saito previously said that "voting for the leader of the opposition party would be out of the question". This change in view could bolster the prospects of DPFP leader Yuichiro Tamaki (seen as the frontrunner of potential opposition PM) winning a run-off in the Diet.
EURIBOR OPTIONS: ERZ5 Call Buyer
Oct-13 15:34
ERZ5 98.25 call, paper pays 0.5 in 7.5k
Trending Top
Jan-30 21:43
Jan-30 21:11
