EMISSIONS: EU End-Of-Day Carbon Summary: EUAs/UKAs Rise On Equities Gains
EUAs and UKAs Dec25 are rising, supported by gains in equities. Both STOXX and FTSE are trending higher amid optimism over a potential deal to end the US government shutdown.
- EUA DEC 25 up 0.7% at 80.03 EUR/t CO2e
- UKA DEC 25 up 2.46% at 56.71 GBP/t CO2e
- TTF Gas DEC 25 down 0.7% at 30.97 EUR/MWh
- NBP Gas DEC 25 down 0.8% at 80.53 GBp/therm
- Estoxx 50 up 1.9% at 5669.55
- The latest EU ETS CAP3 auction cleared at €79.97/ton CO2e, down 0.12% compared with the previous EU auction at €80.07/ton CO2e according to EEX.
- A medium-term uptrend in ICE EUA futures remains intact and the latest pullback is for now considered corrective. Note that a move down is allowing a short-term overbought trend condition to unwind. Recent gains have resulted in a breach of resistance at €80.37, the Oct 10 high and a bull trigger. This confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and opens €84.50, the Jan 30 high and a key resistance. Key support is at €77.62, the 50-EMA.
- Veyt suggested EUAs may consolidate around current levels this week, with 2040 climate target remaining uncertain, while technical and weather forecasts limiting upward momentum.
- EU Parliament backs 2040 climate target, according to Bloomberg. The Committee on the Environment, Climate and Food Safety voted to reject Ondřej Knotek’s proposal to dismiss the 2040 climate target, according to the EU Parliament.
- United States, China and India, accounting for 50% of the world’s emissions, will skip most part of COP30, according to Euro News.
- Several countries, including China, India and Bolivia, are challenging the EU’s CBAM, pushing to include unilateral trade measures on the COP30 agenda, according to AFP.
- The EU and Brazil have launched a joint appeal at the pre-COP30 leaders’ meeting, aiming to form a coalition of countries to raise revenues from carbon pricing to invest in clean technologies aligned with the Paris Agreement, according to Euro News.
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US: Trump Oval Office Announcement Underway Shortly
US President Donald Trump is shortly due to deliver an announcement in the White House Oval Office. LIVESTREAM The announcement is expected to relate to drug pricing and could follow a similar template to a recent pledge from Pfizer.
- The announcement will be Trump's first press remarks since a market-moving Truth Social statement earlier today in which Trump suggested calling off a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping and raising tariffs on China in response to new export controls from Beijing on rare earths. See earlier bullets here and here.
RATINGS: Moody's Completes Periodic Review Of Belgium, No Rating Action
No ratings actions for Belgium from Moody's, which is quoted in a press release on Bloomberg: "Moody's Ratings (Moody's) has completed a periodic review of the ratings of Belgium and other ratings that are associated with this issuer. The review was conducted through a rating committee held on 2 October 2025 in which we reassessed the appropriateness of the ratings in the context of the relevant principal methodology(ies), and recent developments. This publication does not announce a credit rating action and is not an indication of whether or not a credit rating action is likely in the near future."
- There had been some speculation there could be a ratings action - MNI wrote Thursday: "* Moody's on Belgium (Current rating Aa3, Outlook Negative): We expect Moody's to maintain their current stance in the absence of 2026 budget details."
MACRO ANALYSIS: US Macro Week Ahead: No CPI, But Plenty Of Pre-Blackout FedSpeak
Below is the week’s data schedule, with MNI’s annotation of whether or not data will be postponed.
- As we went to press, the Fed announced that next week's Industrial Production data will be postponed (was due to be published next Friday Oct 17) as the data “incorporate a range of data from other government agencies, the publication of which has been delayed as a result of the federal government shutdown.”
- We won’t be getting September CPI as scheduled on Oct 15, but at least the BLS announced it will publish the data on Oct 24.
- As such next week we’ll be looking at some under-covered data points, including the Redbook weekly and Chicago Fed’s CARTS retail sales data (in lieu of the Census Bureau retail sales report), with a little more focus than usual on regional Fed manufacturing indices (NY, Philadelphia).
- Once again, the dearth of tier-one data leaves Fed commentary in focus ahead of the pre-FOMC blackout period: highlights for us are Philadelphia Fed President Paulson making her first comments on monetary policy on Monday since being appointed in the summer, while as always Chair Powell bears watching on Tuesday (we also hear from Bowman, Waller, Collins, Miran, Schmid, and Musalem).
- Additionally we get the latest Beige Book which was already key given the FOMC was already increasingly focused on anecdotal information as it attempts to navigate murky economic waters.
