EMISSIONS: EU End-Of-Day Carbon Summary: EUAs/UKAs Rangebound This Week

{EUEUAs/UKAs Dec25 are on track for a 0.46% weekly loss and 0.02% weekly gains, remaining rangebound as most gains were erased by Thursday’s sharp decline. EUAs/UKAs Dec25 are edging higher today, supported by gains in EU gas, with TTF rising amid ongoing supply disruption risks.

• EUA DEC 25 up 0.3% at 75.77 EUR/t CO2e
• UKA DEC 25 up 0.29% at 56.15 GBP/t CO2e
• TTF Gas OCT 25 up 1.2% at 32.7 EUR/MWh
• NBP Gas OCT 25 up 1.4% at 80.32 GBp/therm
• Estoxx 50 up 0% at 5388.49
• The latest Germany ETS CAP3 auction cleared at €75.02/ton CO2e, down 0.56% compared with the previous Germany auction at €75.44/ton CO2e according to EEX.
• EUA Auction Calendar Week Ahead (Calendar Week 38) - A total of 20.2mn EUAs will be auctioned next week, with 5 auction sessions will be held. The latest EU ETS auction cleared at €75.02/ton CO2e, down -0.56% w/w, above the 10, 50 and 100-day averages.
• Bullish conditions in ICE EUA futures remain intact and recent gains reinforce current conditions. Yesterday’s sell-off - for now - appears corrective. Monday’s move higher resulted in a breach of resistance at €76.75, the Jun 13 high and a key medium-term hurdle for bulls. A clear break of this level would set the scene for an extension towards €78.73, a Fibonacci retracement. Key support to watch lies at €68.71, the May 30 low.
• EUA Sep25 is seeing balanced positioning as traders weigh modest downside risk amid rising implied volatility and widened volatility skew. The put/call ratio is marginally above parity at 1.01, while the delta call-put volatility skew widened to -1.26, suggesting downside protection has become relatively more expensive.
• TTF front month is steady today but near its low for the week after falling back from a high of €33.44/MWh on Sep.10. Seasonal maintenance in Norway is set against strong wind forecasts next week amid ongoing Russia sanctions uncertainty.
• Germany has joined France in delaying a vote on the EU’s 2040 climate target, calling for member states to discuss the issue at the Oct. 23–24 summit, according to Bloomberg.
• Lead MEPs from the European People’s Party (EPP) proposed allowing EU member states to use limited international carbon offsets in EU ETS from 2031, according to the leak amendments proposals.