EQUITIES: EU Banking Index highest since January 2010, over 63% up this Year

• RES 4: 6402.44 1.382 proj of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing
• RES 3: 6381.00 1.764 proj of the Apr 7 - 10 - 21 price swing 
• RES 2: 6356.12 1.236 proj of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing
• RES 1: 6333.25 High Jul 3    
• PRICE: 6275.75 @ 14:38 BST Jul 8  
• SUP 1: 6235.50 Low Jul 2  
• SUP 2: 6151.56/6011.49 20- and 50-day EMA values   
• SUP 3: 5811.50 Low May 23 
• SUP 4: 5645.75 Low May 7 

The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged, the outlook remains bullish. Resistance at 6128.75, the Jun 11 high, has recently been breached. The break confirmed a resumption of the uptrend that started Apr 7. This has been followed by a breach of key resistance and a bull trigger at 6277.50, the Feb 21 high. Sights are on 6356.12, a Fibonacci projection. Key support is at the 50-day EMA, at 6011.49.

Johnson Redbook Retail Sales closed June on a high, rising 5.9% Y/Y in the final week (ending Jul 5 - June is a 5-week month on the retail calendar), after 4.9% in the prior week. This brought month-to-date sales to 5.1% Y/Y (lower than retailers' targeted 5.7% rise).

• Johnson Redbook notes that their preliminary target is for 4.8% Y/Y growth, with the estimate to be finalized next week. "July is a four-week month that ends on August 2nd and typically experiences relatively low sales volume, with promotions driving sales as stores clear out summer inventories and restock for fall."
• Anecdotes in the report were brief, and again didn't mention tariffs: "Significant increases in temperatures nationwide, combined with Independence Day promotions and increased demand for summer merchandise, encouraged consumers to visit air-conditioned stores. Many people also stocked up on groceries in preparation for the long holiday weekend."
• The Redbook series suggests continued resilience in retail sales through early July albeit continuing a gradual slowdown since some apparent tariff front-running to April. Next week brings the June advance Retail Sales report, which is expected to see a bounce vs May (headline 0.0% M/M after -0.9%, ex-auto 0.3% after -0.3%). A flat rate of headline M/M growth would roughly translate into a pickup in Y/Y activity to the high 3s from a 7-month low 3.3% in May.

• +10,000 FVQ5 109.25 calls, 3 ref 108-03.5 (laid off on screen) at 0920:47ET