EQUITIES: EU Bank stock Vol trade
Feb-24 11:14
SX7E (17th March) 115^ trades 5.10 in 18k
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Trend Needle In Gilts Points North
Jan-25 11:14
- In the FI space, the latest pullback in {GE} Bund futures is likely a correction and the contract remains above support. Recent trend highs confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle and this maintains a price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. A resumption of gains would open 141.70, the Dec 13 high. Initial firm support is at 137.53, the Jan 16 low. A break would threaten the bullish theme.
- Gilt futures remain in an uptrend. Recent trend highs have confirmed a resumption of the short-term uptrend and resulted in a break of 105.20, the 76.4% retracement of the Nov 24 - Dec 28 bear leg. This signals potential for a climb towards the 106.00 handle next ahead of 107.06 further out, the Nov 24 high and a key resistance. On the downside, initial firm support has been defined at 103.21, the Jan 17 low. A break would threaten the recent recovery.
LOOK AHEAD: Wednesday-Thursday Data: GDP, Claims, Durables, New Home Sales
Jan-25 11:12
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- Jan-25 0700 MBA Mortgage Applications (27.9, --)
- Jan-25 1130 US Tsy $24B 2Y FRN note (91282CGF2) and $36B 17W bill sales
- Jan-25 1300 US Tsy $43B 5Y Note Sale (91282CGH8)
- Jan-26 0830 Wkly Claims (190k, 205k), Continuing Claims (1.647M, 1.658M)
- Jan-26 0830 GDP Price Index(4.4%, 3.2%), GDP ann'd QoQ 3.2%, 2.6%)
- Jan-26 0830 Personal Consumption (2.3%, 2.8%); Core PCE QoQ (4.7%, 3.9%)
- Jan-26 0830 Retail Inv MoM (0.1%, 0.2%); Wholesale MoM (1.0%, 0.5%)
- Jan-26 0830 Durable Goods Orders (-2.1%, 2.5%); ex-trans (0.1%, -0.2%)
- Jan-26 0830 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (0.1%, -0.2%); ship (-0.1%, -0.4%)
- Jan-26 1000 New Home Sales (640k, 611k); MoM 5.8%, -4.5%)
- Jan-26 1100 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity -9, -7)
- Jan-26 1130 US Tsy $75B 4W, $60B 8W bill auctions
- Jan-26 1300 US Tsy $35B 7Y note (91282CGJ4) auction
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Support In Cable Lies At The 20-Day EMA
Jan-25 11:07
- In FX, the EURUSD remains in an uptrend and the pair is trading closer to its recent highs. A fresh high print Monday maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and moving average studies continue to highlight positive market sentiment. Sights are on 1.0954, the Apr 11 2022 high. The 20-day EMA marks initial firm support - it intersects at 1.0754.
- GBPUSD has pulled back from recent highs. The move lower is considered corrective. A broader bullish structure remains intact and moving average studies continue to highlight an uptrend. Earlier this week, price pierced resistance at 1.2446, Dec 14 high. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started late September 2022 and open 1.2506, the 1.382 projection of the Sep 26 - Oct 5 - Oct 12 price swing. Initial firm support is 1.2226, the 20-day EMA.
- USDJPY trend conditions remain bearish and the pair is trading below 131.58, the Jan 18 high and the 20-day EMA, at 130.90. Recent activity still appears to be a bear flag formation, reinforcing the downtrend. A break lower would open 126.81, 1.382 projection of the Oct 31 - Nov 15 - 21 price swing. The bear trigger is 127.23, Jan 16 low. On the upside, clearance of 131.58 would be a bullish development and signal scope for a stronger correction.
