EQUITIES: Estoxx Synth trade
May-16 12:44
SX5E (19/12/25) 5100, bought the call for 94 in 12k (vs 12k at 5100, 100del).
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CANADA DATA: Core CPI Latest Trends
Apr-16 12:39
Further moderation in BoC's preferred core metrics, whilst CPIxFE and CPIX lift but are still low, especially CPIX.
Core CPI (median & trim av - BoC focus):
- % M/M: 0.12 in Mar'24 after 0.12 in Feb'24
- % 3mth ar: 1.3 in Mar'24 after 2.3 in Feb'24
- % 6mth ar: 2.3 in Mar'24 after 2.5 in Feb'24
- % Y/Y: 2.95 in Mar'24 after 3.1 in Feb'24
CPI xFE (ex food & energy):
- % M/M: 0.27 in Mar'24 after 0.13 in Feb'24
- % 3mth ar: 1.9 in Mar'24 after 1.6 in Feb'24
- % 6mth ar: 2.7 in Mar'24 after 2.5 in Feb'24
CPIX (ex 8 most volatile & indirect taxes):
- % M/M: 0.19 in Mar'24 after 0 in Feb'24
- % 3mth ar: 0.8 in Mar'24 after 0.3 in Feb'24
- % 6mth ar: 1.6 in Mar'24 after 1.2 in Feb'24
Source: Bloomberg, MNI
CANADA: Another Core CPI Miss Sets The Tone
Apr-16 12:36
- Headline CPI was as expected at 2.9% Y/Y but a third consecutive miss for the BoC’s preferred core measures (especially median) sparks a sizeable rally in GoCs.
- June BoC cut pricing has jumped from 13-14bps to 17-18bps for now, a large step back to the ~20bps seen before US CPI strength last week.
- 2Y GoC yields are 8bps lower post-release, with the 2Y Can-US differential sliding 7.5bps to new multi-year lows of -75.5bps.
- USDCAD jumps 35 pips to ~1.382. It moves closer to latest resistance at 1.3855 (Nov 10, 2023) after which lies a key 1.3899 (Nov 1, 2023 high).
US TSYS: Post-Housing Starts/Building Permits React
Apr-16 12:34
- Treasury futures bounce slightly off weaker levels following lower than expected Building Permits (1.458M vs. 1.510M est), MoM (-4.3% vs. -0.9% est) and Housing Starts (1.321M vs. 1.485M est), MoM (-14.7% vs. -2.4% est).
- TYM4 currently 107-26.5 (-2) vs. 107-21 low - inside technicals with initial resistance above at 108.25+ (High Apr 12), support below at 107-16+ (2.50 proj of Dec 27 - Jan 19 - Feb 1 price swing) followed by 107-07+ (76.4% of the Oct - Dec ‘23 bull leg (cont)).
- Next up: Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization at 0915ET while Fed VC Jefferson presents keynote speech at monetary policy forum (text, no Q&A) at 0900ET.
