EQUITIES: Estoxx spread test Yesterday's low
- A little surprising to see Estoxx spread trading this early, there's still two weeks before expiry.
- Nonetheless, it is worth watching, as it is being sold at -33.5, Yesterday's low and also the lowest print since 25th September.
- VGZ3/VGH4 has traded in 22.6k outright today.
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EURIBOR OPTIONS: Call spread seller
ERM4 96.50/96.62cs sold at 3.5 in 10k.
UK: BOE: Instant Answer Questions For Nov 2 policy meeting
Below are the questions for the November Instant Answers. The results will be published at midday from the BOE lock-up on Thursday.
1. Was the Bank Rate raised, and if so by how much?
2. Number of members voting for cut?
3. Number of members voting for unchanged rate?
4. Number of members voting for a 25bp hike?
5. Number of members voting for any other outcome?
NB: On questions 2-5 we will name the dissenters (and the magnitude of dissent
6. Did the MPC again say “if there were to be evidence of more persistent pressures, then further tightening in monetary policy would be required”?
7. Did the MPC say "Any future increases in Bank Rate are likely to be at a gradual pace and to a limited extent"?
8. Did the MPC say Bank Rate is now likely close to / at its peak?
9. Did the MPC (or the majority of MPC) say Bank Rate is likely to remain at eventual peak for an extended period of time (or similar)?
10. Did the MPC leave its guidance paragraph materially unchanged versus the September policy statement?
11. UK CPI forecast in 2 years time at market rates (mean / mode)?
12. UK CPI forecast in 3 years time at market rates (mean / mode)?
13. UK GDP Q4 2024 forecast at market rates (mode)?
14. UK GDP Q4 2025 forecast at market rates (mode)?
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - WTI Support Remains Intact - For Now
- On the commodity front, Gold conditions are unchanged - the uptrend remains intact and a short-term pullback is considered corrective. Price has recently breached key resistance at $1953.0, the Sep 1 high, and $1987.5, the Jul 20 high. The continuation higher strengthens a bullish theme and opens $2022.20 next, the May 15 high. Initial firm pivot support lies at $1926.7, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this level is required to signal a short-term top and a potential reversal. Initial support is at $1947.0, the 20-day EMA.
- In the oil space, WTI futures traded lower again Tuesday as the pullback from $89.85, the Oct 20 high, extends. The medium-term trend condition is bullish and the recent move lower still appears to be a correction. A resumption of gains would expose the bull trigger at $92.48, the Sep 28 high. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the medium - term uptrend. For bears, a move through the $80.20 support, the Oct 6 low, would instead highlight a short-term top.
