EQUITIES: Estoxx put fly buyer

Feb-10 11:53

SX5E (17th Feb) 4100/400/3900p fly, bought for 7.1 in 5.1k

Historical bullets

PIPELINE: Corporate/Supra-Sov Debt Issuance Nears $150B

Jan-11 11:52

Heavy issuance in the first two weeks of January nears $150B, should start to evaporate soon as next earnings cycle kicks off Friday.

  • Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
  • 01/11 $1B OKB 3Y SOFR+35
  • 01/11 $1B CDC (Caisse des Depots) 3Y SOFR+44
  • 01/11 $Benchmark Kommunalbanken 5Y SOFR+57
  • $30.1B Priced Tuesday, $54.25B/wk
  • 01/10 $10B *Saudi Arabia $3.25B 5Y +110, $3.5B 10.5Y +140, $3.25B 30Y 5.5%
  • 01/10 $4B *KFW 5Y SOFR+40
  • 01/10 $2B *AIIB 5Y SOFR+64
  • 01/10 $2B *Israel 10Y +95
  • 01/10 $2.5B *SK Hynix $750M 3Y +240, $1B 5Y +275, $750M 10Y +310
  • 01/10 $2.1B *BPCE $600M 5Y +145, $1.5B 4NC3 +200
  • 01/10 $1.5B *Deutsche Bank 6NC5 +300
  • 01/10 $1.25B *CaixaBank 6NC5 +250
  • 01/10 $1B *Macquarie Bank 10Y +320
  • 01/10 $1B *Export Bank of India 10Y +190
  • 01/10 $1B *Venture Global 7NC 6.25%
  • 01/10 $1.3B *AM Honda $500M 3Y +80, $300M 3Y SOFR+92, $500M 5Y +103
  • 01/10 $450M *Mongolia 5Y 8.95%

GILTS: Curve flattens as terminal rate moves lower and FinStab sales are strong

Jan-11 11:44
  • Gilts today have been pulled higher by two aspects: first they have been pulled higher from a reduction in terminal pricing globally following less hawkish-than-usual comments from ECB's Holzmann. Second, there has been continued (but slow) follow through from yesterday's BOE Financial Stability sales operation in which the vast majority of remaining gilts bought for the "temporary" programme have now been sold back to the market.
  • 2y yields down -4.5bp today at 3.403%, 5y yields down -8.3bp at 3.374%, 10y yields down -9.0bp at 3.465% and 30y yields down -10.6bp at 3.798% as the curve flattens: 2s10s is 4.6bp flatter today at -0.1.bp and while 10s30s is 1.6bp flatter at 33.3bp.
  • Yesterday's BOE Financial Stability Portfolio sales saw huge takeup. In nominal terms only GBP210mln of long-dated gilts (of which GBP180mln is the 0.875% Jan-46 gilt) and GBP363mln of linkers (of which GBP169mln is the 1.25% Nov-27 I/L gilt) remain to be sold. This compares to initial nominal holdings of GBP17.2bln for longs and GBP6.1bln for linkers.
  • Another Financial Stability Portfolio sales operation is due to be held today (results shortly after 15:30GMT) and it is now just a matter of time before the Bank will have completely unwound its holdings.
  • Looking ahead, we will hear from external MPC member Catherine Mann tomorrow as she is due to give a lecture at the Manchester Business School on Thursday entitled “Challenges facing the UK economy, challenges facing monetary policy: a comparative look.” There is no text due to be released from the event, and Mann was the sole hawkish dissenter in December looking for a 75bp hike, so even if she still sounds hawkish it would not necessarily be a concern for the market. It might be more significant if she was to sound less hawkish, however.
  • We also have November activity data due for release on Friday (including monthly GDP).

UK: Conservative MP Loses Whip As PM Sunak Prepares To Host Japanese PM

Jan-11 11:44

Busy day politically in the UK as PM Rishi Sunak faces PMQs at the top of the hour, followed by a meeting with Japanese PM Fumio Kishida to sign a defence agreement that will allow the deployment of troops in one another's nations, allowing for sizeable joint military exercises to take place.

  • No 10 Downing St has called the pact "the most important defence treaty between London and Tokyo since 1902", while Sunak stated ahead of the meeting that the agreement would "cement the UK's commitment to the Indo-Pacific".
  • Beforehand, Sunak faces difficult PMQs, with widespread industrial action showing no sign of slowing down. Indeed, stories emerging yesterday of trade unions from across sectors potentially seeking to coordinate strike days in major 'days of action' in order to pressure gov't further on increasing pay offers. Livestream: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ynAYEZi7114
  • Sunak could also face questions on former Conservative-now independent MP Andrew Bridgen, currently suspended from the Commons due to breaching rules on lobbying and declaring interests.
  • Chief Whip Simon Hart has confirmed that Bridgen has had the Conservative party whip withdrawn due to midleading tweets regarding the COVID-19 vaccine. Hart stated that 'Misinformation about the vaccine causes harm and costs lives. I am removing the Whip from Andrew Bridgen with immediate effect, pending a formal investigation', adding that Bridgen had "crossed a line, causing great offence in the process".