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May-31 09:12
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GBP: Cable Moderately Lower, Maintains Broader Uptrend
May-01 08:27
- GBPUSD has extended session lows in recent trade, falling 0.35% on Monday. GBP now joins the Japanese Yen and the Chinese Yuan as the worst performing majors to start the week.
- Despite a portion of Friday’s strong advance now being eroded, the trend outlook in GBPUSD remains bullish and Friday’s gains reinforced this theme. The pair traded higher to breach resistance at 1.2546, the Apr 14 high and bull trigger. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and opens 1.2599, the Jun 7 2022 high. Above here, we have 1.2667, the May 27 2022 high.
- Support to watch is at the 20-day EMA, at 1.2438 of which a clear break is required to suggest scope for a deeper correction.
- A very light week for domestic data with final PMI’s the highlight. This should leave sterling at the mercy of broader global developments with both the FOMC and ECB decisions this week, as well as US employment data.
- For the cross, Friday’s move lower undermines the recent bullish theme and instead highlights a developing bearish threat. A continuation lower would pave the way for a test of support at 0.8719, the Mar 15 low and a key level.
US: JPM Sees Modest Gains On First Republic Takeover, Media Call Later Today
May-01 08:05
JPMorgan's press release on the takeover of First Republic Bank is at this link - main headlines in addition to the details released earlier by the FDIC is that JPM sees the deal to be "modestly" accretive to EPS, and that JPM will:
- "Recognize an upfront, one-time, post-tax gain of approximately $2.6 billion, which does not reflect the approximately $2.0 billion dollars of post-tax restructuring costs anticipated over the next 18 months"
- "Remain very well-capitalized with a CET1 ratio consistent with its 1Q 24 target of 13.5% and maintain healthy liquidity buffers"
- There will be an investor presentation released at approximately 0700ET with a media call at 0800ET/investor call at 0830ET.
- Very muted market reaction to the FDIC announcement as well as the JPM release.
RBA: MNI RBA Preview - May 2023: RBA On Hold, But Close Call
May-01 07:47
- The May meeting decision is likely to be very close but given that inflation has peaked and that April was the first pause, rates are likely to be left unchanged at 3.6% on May 2. Governor Lowe will speak in the evening following the meeting.
- The meeting statement will also include some indication of the updated forecasts, which will be published in full in the Statement on Monetary Policy on May 5. Forecasts are unlikely to be revised significantly from February. The guidance is also unlikely to change substantially.
- See full preview here.
