TURKEY: Erdogan Says Turkey to Hold Presidential Election in 2028

Jul-09 10:14
  • "ERDOGAN SAYS TURKEY'S GENERAL ELECTION TO BE HELD IN 2028" - BBG
  • "ERDOGAN SAYS HIS GOVERNMENT WILL FULLY USE 5-YEAR MANDATE"

Erdogan’s term as president runs out in 2028 and he cannot run again unless the constitution is changed or he calls early elections. Meanwhile, Erdogan has resisted calls from the opposition to call a snap election as the ruling party’s polling continues to slide.

  • Erdogan has previously been accused of using constitutional reforms to prolong his time in office, although he said in May that the reason for wanting a new constitution is not to get re-elected – “I have no interest in being re-elected or running for office again” – instead claiming that the current constitution is outdated and retains elements of military influence.
  • Erdogan would need to change the constitution if he does want to stay on when his term ends in 2028, but to obtain another referendum he needs the backing of 360 MPs in the 600-seat parliament and is said to be able to currently rely on only 321. With 400 votes he could amend the constitution immediately.

Historical bullets

BONDS: BTP Block trade

Jun-09 10:13

BTP Block trade, suggest buyer:

  • IKU5 ~1.1k at 121.06.

So far the BTP/Bund spread finds good support at the big Psychological 90bps level.

US TSY OPTIONS: TYQ5 113.00 Calls Lifted

Jun-09 10:10

TYQ5 113.00 calls paper paid 0-12 on 5K, representing another round of upside flow after the buying of the TYQ5 112.50 calls we flagged previously. 

EUR: Some activity in the CME FX Roll

Jun-09 10:06
  • Some early activity in the FX CME roll, nothing huge as of Yet, but the pace will pick up into Friday, should be all but done by then, Expiry is next Monday.
  • The EURUSD trades mostly on legs, just bought for 0.00702 in 4.8k.
  • The spread has traded in just 4.5k outright total, and the record high for this EURM5/U5 spread printed in May is at 0.00716.