TURKEY: Erdogan Reiterates Commitment to Reducing Inflation to Single Digits
Nov-19 08:22
- President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has reiterated his government’s commitment to reducing inflation to single digits and battling against the high cost of living, stressing the importance of maintaining political stability to this end. “But we will continue to work to reduce inflation to single digits. We know we still have a long way to go but we have the commitment and patience to do so,” he said.
- Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy visits Ankara today where he will meet with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan at 13:00GMT/16:00 local time. The two leaders will hold a press conference at 15:00GMT/18:00 local. A senior Ukrainian official told AFP the "main goal is for the Americans to re-engage" in peace efforts.
- No major data releases are scheduled for today. Main opposition leader Ozgur Ozel will visit Ekrem Imamoglu in prison ahead of a rally in Istanbul this evening.
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GILTS: Steady Open; Trend In 10-year Yields Still To The Upside
Oct-20 08:22
A fairly steady open for Gilts ahead of an important week for UK data. Futures are -4 ticks at 92.42. A short-term bull cycle in futures remains intact though, with initial resistance at Friday’s high of 93.17.
- Yields are up to 1bp higher across the curve. 10-year yields are currently 4.536%, down from this month’s 4.758% high. Despite this month’s fall in yields, the medium-term trend for the 10-year is still to the upside. Initial support is the April 7 low at 4.363%, which shields trendline support drawn from the November 2022 low at 4.232% today.
- See MNI’s Tech Trend Monitor for more, which also includes charts on the 30-year Gilt yield.
- Fiscal policy remains a key focus for the Gilt market ahead of the Nov 26th budget. The main fiscal headlines from the weekend have suggested that VAT may be removed from energy bills.
- September public sector finance data is due on Tuesday. After correcting for a VAT error in last month’s release, PSNB is currently tracking GBP9.4bln below the OBR’s forecast year-to-date.
- This release, alongside Wednesday’s CPI report (important for the near-term BOE outlook) will feed into the OBR’s Round 3 forecast on October 31 ( see here for more).
Figure 1: 10-year Gilt Yields (Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P)
FOREX: FX OPTION EXPIRY
Oct-20 08:14
Of note:
USDJPY ~2bn at 150.00/150.05.
EURUSD ~1bn at 1.1700 (tue).
NZDUSD 1.1bn at 0.5700 (wed).
AUDUSD 1.49bn at 0.6450 (fri).
- EURUSD: 1.1645 (665mln), 1.1650 (331mln), 1.1670 (211mln), 1.1700 (346mln), 1.1705 (206mln), 1.1715 (740mln).
- USDJPY: 150.00 (1.28bn), 150.05 (823mln), 150.25 (600mln), 150.50 (355mln), 151.00 (779mln), 151.70 (1.1bn).
- USDCAD: 1.4000 (718mln).
- AUDUSD: 0.6500 (340mln).
- AUDNZD: 1.1325 (400mln).
EURIBOR OPTIONS: Call Fly Buyer
Oct-20 08:08
ERU6 97.93/98.06/98.18c fly, bought for 1 in 2k.
