IRAN: Equities Rally Sharply, and Oil Drops on Iran Headline

• The ongoing strength for the greenback has prompted another round of weakness for EURUSD, which briefly slips to a fresh session low and lowest print for 2026 below 1.1573.
• Moves this week have been exacerbated by a break of trendline support (drawn from the 2025 lows, bolstering the current bear cycle that remains in play for the pair.
• 1.1573 was considered a key support and so today’s close will be important for a bearish extension. Refreshing the downside technical levels:
  • Support 1: 1.1491 - Nov 21 2025 low
  • Support 2: 1.1456 - 1.50 proj of the Jan 27 - Feb 6 - 10 price swing
  • Support 3: 1.1392 – Aug 01 2025 low
• Initial resistance moves down to the intraday high at 1.1707.

• RES 4: 1.1929 High Feb 10   
• RES 3: 1.1878 High Feb 16
• RES 2: 1.1775/1.1835 50-day EMA / High Feb 23 and key resistance
• RES 1: 1.1707 Intraday high
• PRICE: 1.1582@ 14:32 GMT Mar 3
• SUP 1: 1.1573/67 Low Jan 19 and a key support / Intraday low
• SUP 2: 1.1491 Low Nov 21 ‘25
• SUP 3: 1.1456 1.50 proj of the Jan 27 - Feb 6 - 10 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.1392 Low Aug 1 ‘25 

A bear cycle in EURUSD remains in play and Monday’s sharp sell-off, together with today’s follow through, reinforces current conditions. The pair has cleared 1.1693, the 76.4% retracement of the bull leg between Jan 19 - 27. The break strengthens a bearish theme and sights are on 1.1573 pierced), the Jan 19 low and a key support. A clear break of it would open 1.1491, the Nov 21 ‘25 low.  First resistance is 1.1707, today intraday high.

2.90% May-29 Green RAGB tap

• Reoffer price 101.602 to yield 2.373%
• Size set earlier: E1.0bln with no issuer retention (MNI expected E1.25-1.75bln)
• Books closed in excess of E13bln pre-rec (inc E550mln JLM interest)
• Spread set at MS-4bps (guidance was MS-2bps area)
• HR 104% vs 2.10% Apr-29 Bobl (ISIN DE000BU25026)

New 30-year 3.75% Mar-56 RAGB

• Reoffer price 99.50 to yield 3.778%
• Size set earlier: E2.5blnwith no issuer retention (MNI expected E3-4bln)
• Books closed in excess of E56bln pre-rec (inc E3.05bln JLM interest)
• Spread set at 3.15% Oct-53 RAGB + 4bps (mid) (guidance was +7bps area (mid))
• HR 111.5% vs 3.15% Oct-53 RAGB
• Coupon: 3.75% Long first
• Maturity: 20 March, 2056
• ISIN: AT0000A3T279

For both:

• Sizes smaller than MNI had expected, but this likely reflects today's market conditions
• Settlement: 10 March 2026 (T+5)
• Bookrunners: CITI / DB / HSBC / JPM (B&D/DM) / Morgan Stanley / Raiffeisen Bank International
• Timing: TOE 13:40 GMT / 14.40 CET. FTT: Immediately

From market source / MNI colour