UK DATA: Employment activities biggest negative contributor to monthly GDP
This from the ONS doesn't really bode well for the labour market (albeit remember this is January data so is quite lagged) - and bear in mind we have been at similar levels previously so we aren't breaking to new low in the index values yet:
"The fall in employment activities was the largest negative contribution from a single industry to both services output and real GDP growth, contributing negative 0.08 percentage points to services output, and negative 0.06 percentage points to real GDP growth in January 2026. This fall in employment activities follows four consecutive months of growth."
- Note that employment activities includes things like headhunters, employment agencies HR provision etc.
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US TSY FUTURES: TY Sold
TYH6 sees 7.7K sold at 112-18/17+ in the Asia-London handover.
USDJPY TECHS: Reversal From Monday’s High Extends
- RES 4: 159.45 High Jan 14 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 157.76 High Feb 9
- RES 2: 155.84 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 154.52 Intraday high
- PRICE: 153.13 @ 07:01 GMT Feb 11
- SUP 1: 152.80 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 152.10 Low Jan 27 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 151.98 38.2% of the Apr 22 ‘25 - Jan 14 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 151.66 Trendline support drawn from the Apr 22 ‘25 low
USDJPY continues to weaken as the pair extends the reversal from Monday's high. Attention is on key short-term support at 152.10, the Jan 27 low and a bear trigger. A break of this level would highlight a stronger reversal and strengthen a bear cycle that started on Jan 14. Note that a trendline support lies at 151.66 and also marks a key support. The line is drawn from the Apr 22 ‘25 low. Initial resistance is at 155.98, the 20-day EMA.
EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: W/C February 9
Italy is due to hold a BOT auction today, while Germany, France, Spain, Belgium and Finland have already sold bills this week. We expect issuance to be E28.4bln in first round operations, down from E29.5bln last week.
- This morning, Italy will be looking to sell E8.5bln of the new 12-month Feb 12, 2027 BOT.
